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What's Your Theory?

Discussion in 'General Elio Discussion' started by Trusting, Nov 21, 2017.

  1. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    Even Warren Buffet couldn't accomplish that with all of his money over that time period. Elio does not have the design done by a long shot. They have told us that through the numbers. When you have spent $62M so far and need an additional $85M, that's a total budget of $147M. Elio is literally not even 50% of the way there. At this rate of progress, it'll be 2029 by the time they get ready to have a version to produce. Currently, I'd say that the rate of progress on getting it done is about 0.01% per month. Elio has told everyone that it'll take 76 weeks to get the car to production, that's mid 2019. I doubt they could shave any time off of that since it's pretty optimistic as it is.

    Elio would be much further along if they would have started with a number of around 5K for the first year and then ramp up slowly. When you are looking at cranking one out every 40 seconds, you have to design accordingly. Plus, just look at the problems Tesla is having with the Model 3 ramp up. This is a company that has already been making cars but not at the volume like they will be with the 3. This is why Elio is only planning for 65K the first year because they know it'll take a while to get up to full speed. Elio knows better.
     
  2. Burg

    Burg Elio Enthusiast

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    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
  3. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    There is something else to remember. The longer Elio goes without actually spending money on things like outfitting the plant and buying products from their suppliers, the more difficult it will be for them to hit cost and timeline numbers. I'll give you an example. Elio is using Steel Strips Wheels that will be made in India. That announcement came out in August 2016. Like food, there is a "must use by" date on quotes and contracts. Most of the time it's between 30 and 90 days. Imagine if you went to a contractor and got a quote on building a new house. You can't get the quote and come back 18 months later and think that the quote and timeline will be honored because it won't. Plus you can't keep calling the contractor every month to check in and make sure nothing has changed. He'll stop answering the phone.

    As for the Elio being less than 50% that is a true statement. It would be like building your own house and you have a $200K budget. If you have only spent $90K, that doesn't mean it's done. The design of the house might be done on paper but not in the real world. You could pour a foundation, frame it, install windows, doors, roof, siding, driveway mailbox and seed the yard. That looks on the outside like it's done, until you walk in through the front door and notice the plumbing, electrical, HVAC, insulation, sheetrock, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms and fixtures are all missing. Plus it needs to pass code all along the way.

    That is what the Elio reminds me of. Look at all of the CAD screen shots they show in their blogs. Things like the suspension are different than the E series. The E1C still have a bunch of hand fabricated components that would never be on a mass produced car in the engine compartment. Plus it still has a front battery, gas port on the right side and a exhaust bulge. All of those changes are on CAD and not in real life. The basic design might be done but the details and all of those things people don't notice because they are covered up take the most time and money to perfect.
     
    Rickb and Elio Amazed like this.

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