What's Your Theory?

[Elio Amazed]

Very interesting discussion potential indeed. I'd buy him lunch too. Maybe the three of us could go out for that beer.

Well, apparently things like that aren't too far fetched. After all, it appears that Doug got to meet Storm.

 

[Rickb]

Well, apparently things like that aren't too far fetched. After all, it appears that Doug got to meet Storm.

O.K then, it's the 4 us and Doug makes a party of 5.

 

[Ty]

This is where Paul has demonstrated his inability to properly manage and look long term. In 2016 he burned through a boatload of money and pretty much ran the company out of cash. If you look at the SEC filings, Elio was bringing in a pretty good amount of money through reservations. Obviously they needed to spend money to make money. When you are letting the money go out way faster than it's coming in, you will run out in short order. Why Paul didn't throttle back on the spending and keep the roadshow going is beyond me.

I looked it up and Elio raised around $26M in 2016, on just reservations alone. With no show, no social media, no contact with anyone, you can't expect that a website with a blog is going to generate any meaningful income. Think about it, the last time anyone has seen Paul was in May at the press conference in Shreveport. It's coming up on 6 months and the frontman for the company with his name, is nowhere to be found. Paul is setting the perfect example on how to ruin a company image and faith in the product.

If Paul is reading this, you need to man up and take the lumps. You don't only come around when times are good. Successful management and ownership is there through good and bad. Showing your face and giving an update all while letting people know in person that you appreciate their support over the years, will go a long way in helping you turn your company around. The ball is in your court. What are you going to do?

It could also be the Paul doesn't NEED anything right now but has to bide his time. There's no point drumming up even more reservations which, in the long run, cost quite a bit of money. Think of it - every single Spot in Line that there is costs Elio $1,500 - $1,750... 20K all-in will cost Elio $33M profit in the first year of production. What sane business man would go out and strive to maintain that level of loss? No, in makes sense to wait for the financial stuff in the background to come to fruition (there's surely more going on than we know) and THEN pop back out and get the thing going. The fact that we all face the delays is a side note though I believe Paul will do what he can to do right by us as best he can.

I wouldn't say Paul has abandoned people in these lean times... he still makes sure we get weekly emails to let us know they still plan to build Elios. I don't know what more he could be doing right now (within current budget constraints) to make you (reservationists, not RSchneider personally) feel better. I mean, it's not like he's going to write individual letters or call all of us.

 

[Ty]

Remember, the one guy that everyone hates here is Elon Musk. The reason why they do is because they wish Paul Elio was just like him. This is because no matter how bad things are going, Elon is still out there as the front man and selling his idea. Even if the company is losing money, you got your reward for being a loyal reservation holder. Imagine if Paul was that way. If he was, Elio would be celebrating the 1M Elio by the end of this year and right behind that, the new Elio 2.0 Hybrid that gets 200 mpg plus a teaser of Elio 3.0 that is an EV which goes from 0-60 in 6 seconds, gets 600 miles on a charge and can be 100% recharged at one of the Eliochargers in 30 minutes. Instead, we have a guy with a 9 year old idea that went into hiding except for a select few.

The Elon type of thinking needs to get the Elio brand off and running to infinity and beyond.

Yeah, Paul hasn't been as charismatic as Elon, that's for sure. He didn't start with as much money either. It's still up in the air which company will end up making the most money. At the rate Tesla's been losing money, and if you listen to others in the industry, Tesla may just run itself into the ground with tons of ideas and not much execution. I hope they get profitable soon though as it'd encourage others to get the ball rolling faster.

 

[RSchneider]

As in my other post, I just wonder how many of the 65K are even still interested. Just because someone put down $100 and got a $50 bonus doesn't mean that they are going to actually buy it in 2019. If you look at the numbers, even Elio did not fair too well with the commit to buy, so that right there makes me wonder if people just accepted an Elioless life. Then there are other factors. Death, old age, loss of job, getting married, moved out of the country, retired, having kids, change of job, getting promoted, disease just to name the big ones. People reserved these as far back as the beginning of 2013. Next month that will be 5 years. There is a shelf life when it comes to reservations, especially for the $100 ones.

 

[johnsnownw]

Yeah, Paul hasn't been as charismatic as Elon, that's for sure. He didn't start with as much money either. It's still up in the air which company will end up making the most money. At the rate Tesla's been losing money, and if you listen to others in the industry, Tesla may just run itself into the ground with tons of ideas and not much execution. I hope they get profitable soon though as it'd encourage others to get the ball rolling faster.

Tesla has made a lot of money, so I think they're pretty far out front of Elio. Now if you're discussing profit, that's certainly something Tesla needs to show at some point...that's of course the entire point of the Model 3 and Y, and Model 3 is about to ramp up in a month or so.

 

[RSchneider]

Tesla has made a lot of money, so I think they're pretty far out front of Elio. Now if you're discussing profit, that's certainly something Tesla needs to show at some point...that's of course the entire point of the Model 3 and Y, and Model 3 is about to ramp up in a month or so.

Let's put this in perspective. Imagine if Elio stopped all public appearances in the middle of May. At that time, he just told us that he was committed to building the 3 and then got upset with the local press. Then today, there wasn't a single 3 produced and still no signs of life with Elon. Can you imagine how upset the reservation holders would be? Can you imagine how much more the press would be on Elon. Every bit of news for Tesla would be bad news and speculation running rampant. Most of the press would be calling for the end of Tesla and Elon in general.

As we have seen, Elon does not disappear and will admit Tesla has problems with the 3. That's what you do. You take the good with the bad even when you are spending 100% of your time not only raising money from investors but running your various businesses. If that guy can take time out of his day to talk to the public, then so could Paul.

 

[LillyMayPatterson #1685 & #5648]

It could also be the Paul doesn't NEED anything right now but has to bide his time. There's no point drumming up even more reservations which, in the long run, cost quite a bit of money. Think of it - every single Spot in Line that there is costs Elio $1,500 - $1,750... 20K all-in will cost Elio $33M profit in the first year of production. What sane business man would go out and strive to maintain that level of loss? No, in makes sense to wait for the financial stuff in the background to come to fruition (there's surely more going on than we know) and THEN pop back out and get the thing going. The fact that we all face the delays is a side note though I believe Paul will do what he can to do right by us as best he can.

I wouldn't say Paul has abandoned people in these lean times... he still makes sure we get weekly emails to let us know they still plan to build Elios. I don't know what more he could be doing right now (within current budget constraints) to make you (reservationists, not RSchneider personally) feel better. I mean, it's not like he's going to write individual letters or call all of us.

I agree and I've said it before, Let the boys do their thing. I've got no business second guessing them or should I bother them. Yes, it is difficult to stand by but I do have a real life. As lame as the emails have been, they are entertaining, lol.
I didn't think about our discounts. Mine alone is $6, 350.00 ! I just figured with limited or lack of a staff for the reason they aren't actively seeking new reservations. This makes cents. WOW ! Our stock just hit an all time low, $3.60. It's getting exciting.

 

[3wheelin]

It could also be the Paul doesn't NEED anything right now but has to bide his time. There's no point drumming up even more reservations which, in the long run, cost quite a bit of money. Think of it - every single Spot in Line that there is costs Elio $1,500 - $1,750... 20K all-in will cost Elio $33M profit in the first year of production. What sane business man would go out and strive to maintain that level of loss? No, in makes sense to wait for the financial stuff in the background to come to fruition (there's surely more going on than we know) and THEN pop back out and get the thing going. The fact that we all face the delays is a side note though I believe Paul will do what he can to do right by us as best he can.

I wouldn't say Paul has abandoned people in these lean times... he still makes sure we get weekly emails to let us know they still plan to build Elios. I don't know what more he could be doing right now (within current budget constraints) to make you (reservationists, not RSchneider personally) feel better. I mean, it's not like he's going to write individual letters or call all of us.

Start quote: "What sane business man would go out and strive to maintain that level of loss?" End quote.
Well Ty, your statement alone says everything! Paul Elio is NO Elon Musk who can do exactly that- willing to risk losses and even use his own money to realize his dream. Paul Elio is a dreamer with the best of intentions but has a poorly conceived business plan in introducing an insanely affordable mass produced trike for the masses....but nothing to back it up than a few untested prototypes and no funding to date to see it through. Investors will run for cover just looking at how they can possibly recoup their investment that will cost almost half a billion on an "unproven" trike that didn't even see production ready and tested prototype then hope to sell it for 7K???? And who does not want to own one (or more) of the ELIO that has roof on your head, airbags, brand new ICE, safety features and made in America no less for that price?? Isn't it the reason why we're all here?? But once the fun fare faded and got our heads together, this ELIO is cheaper than an entry level 2wheeler motorcycle! Does one still believe the EM mantra "half a car, half a price" will actually work? Did PE came up with this idea all by himself to garner interest and hype or did he even consulted a business analyst if his idea is even doable? There's always that possibility that Elon Musk may not be able to recoup all his losses, but his Tesla cars are in the roads today and his rockets are flying high- kudos to the man who makes his dream come true. Ok, enough of all the negativity....some of you would most likely be driving a different trike, EV or ICE before the ELIO shows up in 2019 (fingers crossed) so until it happens, enjoy the blogs folks!

 

[RSchneider]

Over the weekend I did read more of the SEC filing and this was something I found interesting:

"Currently, we estimate that we need to raise an estimated $376.6 million from new investment (of a total budget of $531.2 million) to reach cashflow positive. This $376.6 million of new investment assumes approximately (a) $110.5 million will be obtained through additional reservation deposits, and (b) sales margin of $44.1 million from our initial customer deliveries of the Elio. To the extent that we do not continue to receive reservation deposits, the amount needed to be raised from new investment will be higher than $376.6 million."

Looks like Elio is expecting to get many more reservations and make some good money off of the initial customer Elios. So, it looks like they probably don't need any extra money from the current reservation holders as they will make plenty off of them and with production beginning, the reservations will come in much faster than in the past. Just $44M off of the first 65K deliveries shows that when they hit 250K, that will be over $169M (probably around $200M since there will be no locked in price and bonuses). Within three years Elio will be turning a really nice profit and be debt free.