Securities And Exchange Commission Form 1-k - Filing Date: 2016-04-29

[skygazer6033]

Perhaps the 75 mil for tooling is for the engine machining equipment. I stated a few weeks ago in another thread that they would need 50 to 100 million in precision milling and boring equipment to be able to produce engines for full production.

 

[Ekh]

Remember that the SEC filings are intentionally grim and worst-case.

True. But in EM's case, the last 3 reports have been "grim and worst-case." Now, suddenly they are much more grim. At some point, shareholders are owed an explanation. But I bet we wait til hell freezes over before we see it.

 

[Ekh]

I absolutely agree with your assessment!

I've reviewed all the posting's with regards to the probability of obtaining government financing, I just don't see a realistic pathway to the Feds becoming involved, especially in a presidential election year.

I've always felt private investment was the best way Elio Motors could potentially raise 240 million...(the new 312 million figure only further complicates matters).

I have no doubt Elio's suppliers & sub-contractors are currently evaluating the updated K-1 as we speak, which might leaded to the tightening of avaible credit for Elio Motors.

It's also important to remember that the K-1 is backwards looking...so there are further current details that Elio does not have to publicly disclose.

It all comes down to funding...

Do you really think they have enough cash on hand to compete development?

We disagree sharply about the likelihood of gov't funding. If Elio demonstrates 75mpg "in the flesh" and demonstrates good safety, I believe they WILL receive the loan. DOE asked EM to apply, not the other way around, and they've sat on the application for a year and a half for some reason other than sloth. My guess is they WANT to say yes, but have to feel pretty damn secure that the car is a workable proposition before they do.

There is another factor you have entirely overlooked: a "book" of business currently worth $355 million dollars. That is the amount of dollars Elio can take in (actually understated, because it ignores options and assumes a $6800 selling price) in 104 days of full production. Even allowing for ramp up, that is the money that will be paid in within six months of opening the doors.

That is enough to make the business highly profitable. At at a net of $2000 or so per car, patient money will be rewarded.

So perhaps your analysis isn't as acute as you think. Yes, it's a grim view at present, but all those orders are genuine (minimum of $100 paid in per order, and over 90% are "all in," meaning non-refundable). Real orders from real people adding up to real money. That is grounds for DOE to say "yes" if other conditions are met. And that's why Elio is determined to get the E-1 vehicles built and tested before the money runs out and before the end of this governmental fiscal year if it is possible to do so.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

I absolutely agree with your assessment!

I've reviewed all the posting's with regards to the probability of obtaining government financing, I just don't see a realistic pathway to the Feds becoming involved, especially in a presidential election year.

I've always felt private investment was the best way Elio Motors could potentially raise 240 million...(the new 312 million figure only further complicates matters).

I have no doubt Elio's suppliers & sub-contractors are currently evaluating the updated K-1 as we speak, which might leaded to the tightening of avaible credit for Elio Motors.

It's also important to remember that the K-1 is backwards looking...so there are further current details that Elio does not have to publicly disclose.

It all comes down to funding...

Do you really think they have enough cash on hand to compete development?

No I don't. I do recall, that EM has an agreement with the parish that plant workers (1500)? by a certain date? which will only exaserbate the project must be e,ployed?

 

[Ekh]

That date has been extended until July 2017

 

[slinches]

I certainly respect your opinion, but my best hunch is that ATVM is no longer in tune with Elio's business model, just too much risk.

Hopefully Elio Motors will secure private funding!

When was EM's business plan lower risk than right now? It has always been a high-risk venture, as is the case with any automotive start up company. And it's lower risk now than ever since they have at least partially validated the "4 must haves".

Personally, as a stockholder, I'd prefer that the ATVM loan goes through. That would mean there would be substantially less dilution of my investment.

 

[DeltaMike]

For ease-of-comparison, here is the change between those two:

  Uses:           Change:
Prototype         -136,000.00
Engineering    -11,127,000.00
Advertising      4,715,000.00
Other Expenses  17,255,000.00
Tooling         75,460,000.00
Plant Setup    -39,283,000.00

I believe this reflects both changing needs/goals, and reduced allocation due to funds already being spent in particular areas.

This seems helpful but don't want to misinterpret. The 'cost mores' are the non-minuses; the 'cost less' are those with minuses, right?

 

[Sethodine]

This seems helpful but don't want to misinterpret. The 'cost mores' are the non-minuses; the 'cost less' are those with minuses, right?

Yes; the ones in negative means that the new buget is putting less money towards those things.

 

[John Painter]

We disagree sharply about the likelihood of gov't funding. If Elio demonstrates 75mpg "in the flesh" and demonstrates good safety, I believe they WILL receive the loan. DOE asked EM to apply, not the other way around, and they've sat on the application for a year and a half for some reason other than sloth. My guess is they WANT to say yes, but have to feel pretty damn secure that the car is a workable proposition before they do.

There is another factor you have entirely overlooked: a "book" of business currently worth $355 million dollars. That is the amount of dollars Elio can take in (actually understated, because it ignores options and assumes a $6800 selling price) in 104 days of full production. Even allowing for ramp up, that is the money that will be paid in within six months of opening the doors.

That is enough to make the business highly profitable. At at a net of $2000 or so per car, patient money will be rewarded.

So perhaps your analysis isn't as acute as you think. Yes, it's a grim view at present, but all those orders are genuine (minimum of 100 paid in per order, and over 90% are "all in," meaning non-refundable. Real orders from real people adding up to real money. That is grounds for DOE to say "yes" if other conditions are met. And that's why Elio is determined to get the E-1 vehicles built and tested before the money runs out and before the end of this governmental fiscal year if it is possible to do so.

The odds have always been stacked against EM, though the fact they've kept moving forward despite the challenges is a good indication of corporate grit, unfortunately grit doesn't pay off creditors, though it might attract investors.

I agree, if the testing demonstrates the ultra high mileage needed, ATVM is a very good chance. I think EM's ability to pay back the loan, given reservations and what we know about BOM now, is positive. The risk is as it has always been, extremely high. But as we know with Tesla, crappy financials doesn't mean production won't happen. I do think, as you suggest, it's likely not that EMs financials are worse (heck they even got Racer Trust to extend their terms yet again), it's that the financial picture is becoming clearer. I've always wondered how in hell EM could do all this relatively on the cheap - even if they're only building a motorcycle. It will be interesting to see how thing go as they move into the testing, and, based on results, how EM pursues seeking more capital.

 

[Kuda]

The odds have always been stacked against EM, though the fact they've kept moving forward despite the challenges is a good indication of corporate grit, unfortunately grit doesn't pay off creditors, though it might attract investors.

I agree, if the testing demonstrates the ultra high mileage needed, ATVM is a very good chance. I think EM's ability to pay back the loan, given reservations and what we know about BOM now, is positive. The risk is as it has always been, extremely high. But as we know with Tesla, crappy financials doesn't mean production won't happen. I do think, as you suggest, it's likely not that EMs financials are worse (heck they even got Racer Trust to extend their terms yet again), it's that the financial picture is becoming clearer. I've always wondered how in hell EM could do all this relatively on the cheap - even if they're only building a motorcycle. It will be interesting to see how thing go as they move into the testing, and, based on results, how EM pursues seeking more capital.

Yea, reasoned analysis! Party on!