I believe it is very likely that Elio Motors will sell the first year models at $6800. Not only does this prove they were able to do it, while also rewarding the reservation holders, but these vehicles were sold without retail sales expenses and minimal marketing costs which gives Elio Motors plenty of wiggle room before they actually start selling vehicles at a loss. From a business plan, which was released as part of the negotiations with Caddo Parish, we know that company operations, warranty and liability costs, plant operations, and assembly parts and labor only account for about 75% of the retail cost of the vehicle. The remaining 25% is devoted to retail operations, marketing and profit margin. This gives EM roughly $1700 (25% of $6800 = $1700) to play with before they actually start losing money on each vehicle sold.
The second year is where things get more interesting as increases in production costs get added to any cost overruns in retail operations and marketing. Hopefully they can keep a tight lid on all these costs or there could indeed be a fairly steep jump in the price. This being said even if the price jumps a large amount such as 25% ($1700
) to $8,500 in the second year it will still be thousands of dollars less than the nearest available new car at that time while having much better gas mileage.
Anyone is free to check out the old business plan for themselves at the link below. The plan is about two years old and shows production beginning in November 2013 with a retail price of $5959 however the percentages should remain roughly the same as the overall price increases.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6pgWLAKqAbLSkNUUURwNlNHMTQ/edit