Exciting News - Sec Resubmission

[John-b-gone]

I can't help think it would be interesting to compare the two submissions. Is this possible?

 

[Rickb]

Elio's idea seems to have been based predominantly upon the fact that 3-wheelers abide in a regulatory limbo between motorcycles and automobiles.

All Elio has to do is to put two narrow-track wheels on the rear, and they have a "car". This would bypass all the motorcycle requirements, and would instantly be eligible for CAFE credits. On the surface, that would seem easier than all the "autocycle" legislative effort with the states, the proposed Vitter legislation, and the as yet unstarted CAFE legislative changes.

The fact that they haven't added the fourth wheel indicates that they must believe that the benefits do not outweigh the costs.

If EM added a fourth wheel the Elio is a car and would be required to meet all of the safety requirements of a car slowing down the overall process to production. That was the point of three wheels. Level playing field is yet another reason an auto cycle should not qulaify for CAFE credits. They want the advantages of a car without being a car and forced to go through all the added hoops and cost of getting an Elio car to production.

 

[Sethodine]

But if autocycles DID qualify for CAFE, then it could help spark off an entire autocylce industry, revolutionizing the way we think of driving. As each automotive manufacturer gets into the autocycle game, there would be less need/incentive for car manufacturers to purchase credits from Elio; rather than a glut of low-mpg cars supported by Elios credits, we'd see an ever-increasing nationwide fleet of high MPG autocycles from every manufacturer.
Want performance? Buy the turbocharged Chevy Contact! Just need a single-seat and a toolbox for your service vehicle? Get a Dodge Billygoat! Or how about the hydrogen fuel-cell powered Toyota Minerva? The Nissan Sprout long-range EV? The three-seat Ford Escape Pod?

Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

 

[ThreeWheelBurnin]

But if autocycles DID qualify for CAFE, then it could help spark off an entire autocylce industry, revolutionizing the way we think of driving. As each automotive manufacturer gets into the autocycle game, there would be less need/incentive for car manufacturers to purchase credits from Elio; rather than a glut of low-mpg cars supported by Elios credits, we'd see an ever-increasing nationwide fleet of high MPG autocycles from every manufacturer.
Want performance? Buy the turbocharged Chevy Contact! Just need a single-seat and a toolbox for your service vehicle? Get a Dodge Billygoat! Or how about the hydrogen fuel-cell powered Toyota Minerva? The Nissan Sprout long-range EV? The three-seat Ford Escape Pod?

Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

Ford Escape Pod? Someone get me something to wipe the coffee off my monitor...

 

[Gizmo]

I prefer to think of it like one of the Apollo moon missions. As one science fiction writer put it: "When planning the countdown, they plan on fuel pumps failing and needing to be replaced; they plan for one of the knobs on the control panel to come off and needing to be replaced; they plan on the earth opening up while driving the astronauts to the launch tower... That's why they have all these "holds" built into the countdown -- to build in time to get these things fixed. That's also why a lot of an astronaut's time is spent waiting."

But I suppose most of you are too young to remember when we actually went to the moon, even though it took 3 days to get there.

Nope I remember it well. It was televised in the middle of the school day. Classes were suspended during the broadcast.

 

[JEBar]

Don't be confused, in reality a new CAFE ruling would only put dollars into EM's pockets allowing some AUTO manufacturers to purchase those credits and continue to build lower MPG cars and trucks. I don't believe that is the purpose of CAFE as it relates mandating higher MPG requirements and develop alternative energy cars and trucks..

the idea and the reality in practice often aren't the same .... the reality is, CAFE as things are now allow companies that can't meet federal standards get around it by buying credits from companies that can .... its all about the money

 

[cantwait]

If EM added a fourth wheel the Elio is a car and would be required to meet all of the safety requirements of a car slowing down the overall process to production. That was the point of three wheels. Level playing field is yet another reason an auto cycle should not qualify for CAFE credits. They want the advantages of a car without being a car and forced to go through all the added hoops and cost of getting an Elio car to production.

I agree. I think we are saying the same thing using different words.

 

[Jeff Porter]

This is the part I thought was interesting:


This document has a lot of interesting gems

Gems I saw:

Where the typical small car would require 1,000 to 1,500 components for vehicle assembly, the Elio can be produced
with only 270 components.

If they sell all expected shares, the "Working Capital" is about $5.4 million, and a portion of that goes to officers' salaries. [Good work if you can get it.]

Whether a minimum # of shares is sold or a max # of shares is sold, the $7.4 mill planned for prototype building and testing is the same.

The % of off-the-shelf or modified off-the-shelf parts is down to 65%. Seems like that number was higher. Not a big deal.

Computer-aided design models or physical hardware are in place for over 90% of all non-off-the-shelf components. Once the components are available, the actual builds [of the 25 prototypes] will likely take 4 to 6 weeks.

P. 17 shows a listing of what's planned for the 25 prototypes and how many vehicles will be used for each type of test.

For reservations, the avg deposit received is $419, with 94% of the deposits being all-in. At end of Sept 2015, total reservation $ is $19.4 mill.

Current numbers show that in the U.S., 120 million of 258 million vehicles are 6-14 yrs old. [I didn't realize that a 2009 vehicle is a "clunker", but there ya go.]

Here's the selling point that I can't seem to remember: if one were to finance the Elio over 6 yrs, and your previous vehicle got 18 mpg or less, the savings in gas costs pays for the new Elio.

A survey in Detroit of 2000 people who watched a video on the Elio, showed almost 24% of them were very likely or extremely likely to buy an Elio.

Retail stores are expected to have about 4000 sq. ft of space. [That's about 50 ft x 80 ft.]

A detailed 47-wk launch plan is in place, ... 24 weeks of pre-production activities, 10 weeks of manufacturing validation and training, and 12 weeks of production that ramps up to full production (with one shift; 11 more weeks to ramp up the 2nd shift).

It is possible that vehicle testing in the next 12 months may uncover technical issues that may introduce a further delay. (ugh)

There are 19 states that have an autocycle defined by law.

At end of Sept 2015, 17 total FT and PT employees.

They have offices in Phoenix and Mesa, AZ.

If I understand the blather about the plant in Shreveport and the rent charges, Elio Motors will need to pay rent in Aug 2016. Also, EM does not anticipate they will be in production until the end of 2016 at the earliest. [So another extension on rent will be needed, no?]

In Jan 2016, EM has to start making payments on a $23 mill loan from Racer Trust for the equipment purchase in the plant. Other loans and payments are detailed on p.27.

EM believes funding for the $240 mill will come from short-term and long-term sources, traditional sources (not discussed in the document) such as venture debt arrangements and capital leasing on equipment.

Sales of excess equipment from the plant is up to $3.5 mill. [First time I've heard of a number]

[gets us up to p. 30, lol! ]

 

[ks6c]

I'm not confused. In reality EM has to build their motorcycle, pass legislation to classify autocycles, and change the CAFE credit ruling to include autocycles. The Elio will have a motorcycle VIN and will be registered and licensed as a motorcycle with an autocycle sub-classification in many States waiving the MC endorsement and helmet requirements.

Don't be confused, in reality a new CAFE ruling would only put dollars into EM's pockets allowing some AUTO manufacturers to purchase those credits and continue to build lower MPG cars and trucks. I don't believe that is the purpose of CAFE as it relates mandating higher MPG requirements and develop alternative energy cars and trucks.

I respect the fact that you do see some benefit to a potential change.

I'm not so sure I'd give the CAFE initiative such a narrow interpretation - I prefer to think its intent was to improve MPG for the way America travels. To say it should be limited only to autos and not autocycles would be the same as saying "be creative to improve mileage but you're not allowed to think outside the (4-wheel) box". A narrow interpretation would effectively mandate 4 wheels and side by side seating for America's collective fleet, and improvements would remain evolutionarily incremental instead of revolutionarily breakthrough.

Motorcycles can't fill the daily traveling needs of the vast majority of Americans (weather, balance, skills, strength, etc) but autocycles can. Motorcycles will never replace cars (even for us diehards), autocycles most certainly will. If the goal of CAFE is to reduce petroleum consumption in the US, nothing on the technology horizon comes anywhere close to what autocycles can do to deliver against that objective.

Yes, CAFE still allows manufacturers to produce gas guzzlers, but it comes at a serious and increasing cost. Buy credits to be allowed to sell product. The financial incentive to improve is huge.

 

[Ekh]

They were burned because they went with the technology that was popular with the administration. Mostly untested, bleeding edge and with no history. (Incidentally, Fisker and Solyndra were not the only failures. Just the major ones) Elio, on the other hand, is not leading edge. It is technology that is well understood. Just refinements on existing technology. And unfortunately technology that is not popular in Washington.

As far as your "qualifications", prior to retiring I worked for what was the largest company in the US. Until Bobby Kennedy and Judge Green destroyed it, which may explain my hostility toward Washington. It also explains my hostility toward bureaucracies. The major rules in any bureaucracy are:
1) You can never get in trouble for not making a decision.
2) A bad decision is OK if the boss agrees.
3) When in doubt say you need more time to study it.

Did they require Ford to do proof of concept on the Ecoboost before they they gave that ATVM loan?

Your rules apply some of the time. Too much, I agree. I don't know about Econoboost. Do you?