How This Radical Car Missed Its Chance To Change The World - Maybe!

[Grumpy Cat]

There only five or so $42,000 "test" vehicles reserved and produced.
Those were delivered to customers who were delighted to have the first SRKs.
There will be no $42,000 SRKs or FUVs.

Yeah, OK, here's the issue... How can you possibly suggest that having 65,000 reservations and NEVER producing a vehicle is more sustainable than fufilling 3,500 initial reservations and then ramping up from there? Almost everyone here has conjectured that Elio reservations would skyrocket once they're out there on the road. Why in the world would you think that would be any different for Arcimoto?

I'm not say it isn't an issue for Elio to have reservations but not producing the car. Having 65k reservation holders shows far more interest than 3k. Will Arcimoto be successful? Who knows, but it doesn't seem likely.

Arcimoto’s business model focused on in-house R&D not in-house marketing and selling reservations. The 3000 reservation units equates to $45,000,000 in sales revenue to be used to help advance their production plans and perhaps roll out an official marketing/advertising campaign. Also, keep in mind Arcimoto’s production target is 200 FUV’s per week/10,000 per year with one shift. A sustainable business can only be determined after a business is a business with a product to sell based on market acceptance.

The reaction I got from people on the streets during my test drive was my eye-opener on how well received this vehicle will be when it hits the streets in greater numbers. “WTF is that?” “Where can I get one?” Along with waves, thumbs up, screams and hollers. I was surprised by the overwhelming reaction. The real eye-opener was from my could care less about a three wheeler vehicle wife’s reaction during and after her test drive.......with the typical ear to ear grin, “We need to get 2 of these!”

NOTE: There is no comparing either Elio, Arcimoto, and Electra Meccanica to Harley, Spyder, or Slingshot......different motorcycles/different market demographics. I wish them all crazy success and would have preferred that EM followed a similar business model from the start small and scale playbook. It may have been $12-15K, but we may have been driving it by now.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...llion-to-build-fun-utility-vehicles-now-what/ has some good info and great comments.

If people like to poo-poo Elio having $455,000,000 in sales and not being able to get rolling (or at least that we can see due to limited knowledge), I find it hard to believe the Arcimoto will be able to last long term. Could I be wrong? Sure, but just looking at the numbers, it seems doubtful.

 

[Rickb]

I'm not say it isn't an issue for Elio to have reservations but not producing the car. Having 65k reservation holders shows far more interest than 3k. Will Arcimoto be successful? Who knows, but it doesn't seem likely.



https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...llion-to-build-fun-utility-vehicles-now-what/ has some good info and great comments.

If people like to poo-poo Elio having $455,000,000 in sales and not being able to get rolling (or at least that we can see due to limited knowledge), I find it hard to believe the Arcimoto will be able to last long term. Could I be wrong? Sure, but just looking at the numbers, it seems doubtful.

I don’t think anybody is pooing EM’s 65,000 reservations, nor do I think anybody should poo Arcimoto’s 3000+ reservations and their start small and scale production business model, since both fit the individual startup’s business model. Time will tell who is most successful based on market demand for their three wheeler commuter vehicle. Again, I hope it’s both.

 

[johnsnownw]

I'm not say it isn't an issue for Elio to have reservations but not producing the car. Having 65k reservation holders shows far more interest than 3k. Will Arcimoto be successful? Who knows, but it doesn't seem likely.



https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...llion-to-build-fun-utility-vehicles-now-what/ has some good info and great comments.

If people like to poo-poo Elio having $455,000,000 in sales and not being able to get rolling (or at least that we can see due to limited knowledge), I find it hard to believe the Arcimoto will be able to last long term. Could I be wrong? Sure, but just looking at the numbers, it seems doubtful.

Elio hasn't been able to produce sellable vehicles. Even if they get funding tomorrow they won't be able to produce sellable vehicles until 2020...unlike Acrimoto. The Elio is a lot more "accessible" than the SRK/FUV, as it's ICE and less expensive. However, the number of reservations is meaningless if it never gets off the ground, and the number of reservations isn't really an indicator of market demand as neither vehicle would be considered "within public consciousness."

Frankly, the FUV seems to have the edge over the Elio...no matter how you look at it.

 

[Rickb]

The only real benefit/value of reservations to a new startup company, preferably with a no risk refundable reservation deposit, is to show there is serious interest and market support for the concept. It’s one of a few critical requirements needed when looking to attract private or public Venture Capital Market funding sources. Frankly, my gut feeling is that reservation money should not be used or necessary for R&D of the concept, but rather held in escrow. Non-refundable deposits only when locking in the official invite to order with a guaranteed delivery.

 

[Travelbuzz1]

Gentlemen , and the topic is:
How This Radical Car Missed Its Chance To Change The World - Maybe!

 

[Rickb]

They all appear to be radical cars, motorcycles, or autocycles sparking relevant discussion about various business models that may get them to production and us in the driver’s seat.

 

[Elio Amazed]

I'm not say it isn't an issue for Elio to have reservations but not producing the car. Having 65k reservation holders shows far more interest than 3k. Will Arcimoto be successful? Who knows, but it doesn't seem likely..

Fair enough. The problem I see with that comparison and basing such a conclusion on that comparison...
Is that Elio Motors seemed to have put ~20x the amount of marketing and advertising into pursuing it's reservations.
Hence my reminder of what could happen to the interest/reservations/sales for both if/when they're out in significant numbers.

 

[Travelbuzz1]

Fair enough. The problem I see with that comparison and basing such a conclusion on that comparison...
Is that Elio Motors seemed to have put ~20x the amount of marketing and advertising into pursuing it's reservations.
Hence my reminder of what could happen to the interest/reservations/sales for both if/when they're out in significant numbers.

If Elio would have reached out to a car company and placed an engine in the vehicle from the get go and wanted to design one of their own like video suggested. Elio would have been on the streets and all of these costs would have been put forward to more positive means years ago. I do not know how much money this engine that they have produced has cost this Elio company along with the delay cost, but it has to rack up there in the tens of millions in lost revenue.

 

[pistonboy]

How do we know car companies are willing to sell their engines to other car companies? I don't think we really know they are willing to do this. After all, it is helping their competitor.

What ever engine EM is now going to use, perhaps it was not available to them previously. Perhaps it was available but only at an outrageous price.

Perhaps it is now available because the supplying company is getting a big share of stock in EM and we can get our vehicles serviced at "their" dealerships. (I wish)

But again, how do we know these other car companies are willing to sell their engines to competitors?

 

[Travelbuzz1]

How do we know car companies are willing to sell their engines to other car companies? I don't think we really know they are willing to do this. After all, it is helping their competitor.

What ever engine EM is now going to use, perhaps it was not available to them previously. Perhaps it was available but only at an outrageous price.

Perhaps it is now available because the supplying company is getting a big share of stock in EM and we can get our vehicles serviced at "their" dealerships. (I wish)

But again, how do we know these other car companies are willing to sell their engines to competitors?

They have done this in the past and they will do it in the future as Elio has found out. Paul is in the car business and he knows what he could have done. In the video it gives an example of a Honda Engine, and there could be others. Car companies have switched from one manufacture of engines to another has years went on in the past, no big deal. Just look at what has been lost before they get one Elio on the road after all of this waiting is over someday if this happens. The costs where huge.
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