Little News From Tesla

[RSchneider]

America needs Tesla, it created thousands of jobs, it's the only company big enough to really challenge the ICE car makers to step up and clean their act (going green). The big government needs Tesla and if needed, it will step in. I have no idea how much of the 400-500K reservations are foreign holders but when Tesla eventually delivered all units, it'll be fun to see model 3's running around all over America's streets and freeways. It's an American success story we sure don't want to see fail.

This is why America needs Elio too.

 

[johnsnownw]

America needs Tesla, it created thousands of jobs, it's the only company big enough to really challenge the ICE car makers to step up and clean their act (going green). The big government needs Tesla and if needed, it will step in. I have no idea how much of the 400-500K reservations are foreign holders but when Tesla eventually delivered all units, it'll be fun to see model 3's running around all over America's streets and freeways. It's an American success story we sure don't want to see fail.

I like your optimism, but I don't see the current administration bending over backwards to save many CA based companies, especially if those companies are rooted in the green energy sector.

Luckily I don't believe Tesla is anywhere near failure, but if the market tanks like it did back in 08 then there is a strong possibility that it will adversely affect the company. I would fully expect another major automaker to buy up Tesla on the cheap in that event.

 

[3wheelin]

This is why America needs Elio too.

This very affordable trike, at 7K will definitely be a hot seller but they will have to surpass Tesla 3's 400-500K reservations for the VC's to pour in tons of money to automate production- without bleeding tons of cash like what's happening with Tesla right now.

 

[3wheelin]

I like your optimism, but I don't see the current administration bending over backwards to save many CA based companies, especially if those companies are rooted in the green energy sector.

Luckily I don't believe Tesla is anywhere near failure, but if the market tanks like it did back in 08 then there is a strong possibility that it will adversely affect the company. I would fully expect another major automaker to buy up Tesla on the cheap in that event.

I can't even afford the darn thing but like I said, it created American jobs and that can't be overlooked. Current production nightmare needs to end soon as their stock holders are sweating over this.

 

[Coss]

Well it looks like they'll be wondering whole is running the show then:

Tesla Loses President Of Global Sales As Predicted
Feb. 9, 2018 12:02 AM ET
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208 comments
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About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)


Donn Bailey

Long-term horizon, portfolio strategy, growth at reasonable price, contrarian

(2,506 followers)
Summary


Jon McNeill, Tesla's President of Global Sales and Service, has left as I predicted last summer.

Reservation holders just got slammed with Model 3 delay notifications.

The Standard Battery just moved to late 2018 or early 2019.

The AWD Model 3 option has also been pushed to late 2018.

You know I really do not write just to make Tesla (TSLA) fans go crazy. I really don't. But when I have either worked for or run as many companies as I have over four decades you see a few things that tend to be repeated over the years.

Last summer I wrote about the puzzling decision by Tesla to offer Jon McNeill a $700,000 bonus in late August to hit sales targets for all of 2017 when two-thirds of the year was already in the rear-view mirror. I wrote back then that why was Tesla paying a bonus to an executive to do what is already his job? The answer, in my opinion, was to keep him from leaving. It appeared to me to be a commonly used management tool called an Employee Retention Bonus or ERB. I stated no one should be surprised if he was gone soon after December 2017.

Wednesday, on the conference call, Elon Musk announced Jon McNeill was indeed gone. Shortly after the Tesla conference call ended the news broke. It was announced that Jon McNeill had joined Lyft (Private:LYFT) as COO. No doubt this move had been in the works for some time. Rex Tibbens announced he was departing back in November after just two years at Lyft as COO and after 3 years as a VP at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

While some think the bungled Model 3 ramp eliminated any chance McNeill had of making most of the targets for his bonus, I actually doubt any targets were ever truly established. None were ever revealed. I believe McNeill was paid a cash or stock bonus to stay through year-end, plain and simple. I honestly believe he was already looking for the exit due to being handcuffed at doing his job. I believe the inventory numbers got so far out of whack (see links below) because Musk forbid any discounting to hide the fact sales were not matching production rates, which Musk also refused to dial back at that time. Only when the inventory got so large and the numbers so massive as I reported here and here did Musk let McNeill do his job in Q3 and Q4, and finally dialed back production in Q4. It remains to be seen if the inventory will once again start growing with McNeill's departure or if Musk will keep these numbers in balance.


McNeill was not just Sales and Service. He assumed the responsibilities of Vice President of Business Development when Diarmuid O'Connell left in September.

I still think McNeill did a great job with what he had to work with. Finally allowed to mark down older inventory, he blew out over 6,000 units of stale Model S & X inventory in the second half of the year, pushing Tesla over the 100,000 unit delivery mark for the first time in 2017. I'm sorry but I think he deserved the entire bonus after spending most of his time at Tesla hampered from being as effective as he could have been from the start. I wish McNeill well at Lyft. Hopefully, he will be allowed to reach his full potential there.

Musk stated that McNeill's position will not be filled at this time and that sales and service will report directly to Musk. Musk did not mention who will take on the Business Development role. One can only imagine how well having sales and service added to Musk's plate of responsibilities is going to play out. With three models in active sales and all requiring service, just how much time will Musk have to oversee these operations? Add to that the ongoing addition of new facilities, Supercharger placements, a zero-profit used car operation, and I do not see Musk being able to do every job. Something will have to give. Only the biggest fires will get his attention and that is a terrible way to run a company.

The real "news" of the night was after the conference call
As the saying goes "timing is everything." Well, the Model 3 reservation websites and posts went ballistic Wednesday night about 7:30 pm EST. After two weeks of no known configuration emails from Tesla to order a Model 3, the holders all seem to have had their expected production dates updated by delays of at least 3 months, and they are very unhappy! Here are comments from some people posting on Model3ownersclub.com.



My March-May shifted to June-August. Non-owner, 4/1 reservation.
Edit: AWD is showing Late 2018 and SR is showing Early 2019

and

“If we can send a Roadster to the asteroid belt,” Mr. Musk said Wednesday, “I think we can solve Model 3 production.” It's more difficult than rocket science it would appear, Mr. Musk.


and



Been discussing this with my wife and I'll stick it out until mid to late April. I don't want to keep extending my i3 lease. We've been talking about leasing a Bolt until Tesla figures things out...I would rather have the 3 of course.

and

I'm beyond frustrated with Tesla! I'm an owner in GA and just had my window pushed back from Dec - Feb to Mar - May. I have lost all confidence in this Model 3 process now. Sad sad day.

and

WTF Tesla. How about fixing production line issues and spending less time sending roadsters to space.

I am really peeved. Ordered on the first day 03/31/2016. My timeline changed from Early 2018 to Late 2018. WTF does that mean? Probably will loose the credit. If no credit, not going to buy the car. Will wait for some other manufacturer to release electric car. Looks like 2019 will have more variety of electric cars anyway.

One reservation holder posted his account reservation page for everyone to see the changes.

For those readers who insisted I was wrong and that the Standard battery would be available by next month and the AWD this spring, the updates prove I was right. Several other posters on the Tesla owner websites as you read above are now getting messages that the standard battery is out to "Early 2019." I tried to explain to readers Tesla is going to fill every possible L-R battery order they possibly can before starting production of the smaller and cheaper pack. It just makes financial sense to sell as many high priced cars as possible as soon as they can. Those readers most upset are those who I know have reservations for the S-B Model 3. But it is much more important Tesla makes the best decisions for the financial viability of the company than to fill those with first day reservations for the cheaper battery pack.


One other interesting post on Model3ownersclub.com last night seems to indicate Canadian reservations are being moved FORWARD into 2018. That got this response.

Now that is interesting. Do you suppose Tesla is planning to ship some x thousand vehicles to Canada to stretch out availability of the US tax credit? Frankly, they could make a lot of people happy that way. AWD people. And Canadians.

The proof appeared this morning with this post.

Canadian here (in Ontario): our Ontario EV rebate ($14,000), for all practical purposes, disappears in June of this year.

Continued on next page

 

[Coss]

Page 2

For the first time ever, going to My Tesla page not only shows "mid 2018" versus the original placeholder "late 2018", but it has now allowed me to "save my preference":



This makes sense as I have surmised above. We should also expect to see European shipments of the more expensive versions of the Model 3 before the introduction of the Standard Battery. The base $35,000 Model 3 will most likely never appear or will be matched up with other mandatory options as the Model 3 is today. Remember that only the RH drive Model 3 is slated for 2019 on the Tesla website, not all overseas shipments.


One additional comment on AWD. Several current owners are reporting that AWD is now shown as Mid 2018 on their revised reservations. This may imply limited availability once introduced and offered to employees and current owners first.


What is really telling is the timing of these reservation updates. Tesla waited until after the Q4 conference call to release this new information to reservation holders. No doubt they knew people would react negatively and Musk probably did not want to face questions on this subject from analysts. So just how confident is Tesla on hitting 2,500 weekly units by the end of next month?




Bottom Line

Tesla's management revolving door seems to be shifting to exit only. We know their battery manufacturing executive who designed all of the batteries in existing Tesla vehicles recently left. There has been no word if Villanueva was replaced. They did not announce his departure either. How many other top executives have left recently?


Tesla could see another wave of reservation cancellations after Wednesday night. Not that Tesla will share that data. Tesla keeps reservation secrets better than the NSA manages their classified information.


Tesla is going to have to work to keep these reservation holders in place. If indeed no new emails to configure Model 3s have gone out in the last two weeks as reported on the Tesla fansites, more problems may indeed be affecting the Model 3 ramp as reported by CNBC late last month. Did Musk and company outrightly mislead about the ramp status Wednesday night after implying the worst was behind them? The end of Q1 is just 52 days away.


Tesla and Musk are right about one thing. 2018 will indeed be a "transformative" year for Tesla. Perhaps just not in the way they would like investors to believe. If Tesla keeps pushing out production, the company has no way to keep the books balanced with reduced revenue flows. 1Q18 is going to set the tone for the year.


Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS.

And there you go; seems like a lot of Tesla's top people are jumping ship. Well I'm sure he has more waiting to move up, the money's are pretty good.​

 

[johnsnownw]

Page 2

For the first time ever, going to My Tesla page not only shows "mid 2018" versus the original placeholder "late 2018", but it has now allowed me to "save my preference":



This makes sense as I have surmised above. We should also expect to see European shipments of the more expensive versions of the Model 3 before the introduction of the Standard Battery. The base $35,000 Model 3 will most likely never appear or will be matched up with other mandatory options as the Model 3 is today. Remember that only the RH drive Model 3 is slated for 2019 on the Tesla website, not all overseas shipments.


One additional comment on AWD. Several current owners are reporting that AWD is now shown as Mid 2018 on their revised reservations. This may imply limited availability once introduced and offered to employees and current owners first.


What is really telling is the timing of these reservation updates. Tesla waited until after the Q4 conference call to release this new information to reservation holders. No doubt they knew people would react negatively and Musk probably did not want to face questions on this subject from analysts. So just how confident is Tesla on hitting 2,500 weekly units by the end of next month?




Bottom Line

Tesla's management revolving door seems to be shifting to exit only. We know their battery manufacturing executive who designed all of the batteries in existing Tesla vehicles recently left. There has been no word if Villanueva was replaced. They did not announce his departure either. How many other top executives have left recently?


Tesla could see another wave of reservation cancellations after Wednesday night. Not that Tesla will share that data. Tesla keeps reservation secrets better than the NSA manages their classified information.


Tesla is going to have to work to keep these reservation holders in place. If indeed no new emails to configure Model 3s have gone out in the last two weeks as reported on the Tesla fansites, more problems may indeed be affecting the Model 3 ramp as reported by CNBC late last month. Did Musk and company outrightly mislead about the ramp status Wednesday night after implying the worst was behind them? The end of Q1 is just 52 days away.


Tesla and Musk are right about one thing. 2018 will indeed be a "transformative" year for Tesla. Perhaps just not in the way they would like investors to believe. If Tesla keeps pushing out production, the company has no way to keep the books balanced with reduced revenue flows. 1Q18 is going to set the tone for the year.


Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS.

And there you go; seems like a lot of Tesla's top people are jumping ship. Well I'm sure he has more waiting to move up, the money's are pretty good.​

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS."

Pretty much the only pertinent information in what you're posting, Coss.

 

[RSchneider]

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

He makes a living by writing the most negative articles he can. Not only by getting paid by SA but to convince the shareholders to SELL! SELL! SELL! When he convinces them to do that he WINS! WINS! WINS! I'd guess that his articles come out at strategic times for his own gain. It's that most will never read the disclaimer and thus don't realize he is manipulating the reader so he can make a boatload of money. Guys like him are my hero because he demonstrates how people are typically too lazy to do research and just want an easy answer today. He got a great following because he started off with headlines like this:

Tesla drops a bomb on shareholders and owners

Just to add: If you look up this author, he's a real estate agent in Jacksonville, FL .

 

[Rickb]

He makes a living by writing the most negative articles he can. Not only by getting paid by SA but to convince the shareholders to SELL! SELL! SELL! When he convinces them to do that he WINS! WINS! WINS! I'd guess that his articles come out at strategic times for his own gain. It's that most will never read the disclaimer and thus don't realize he is manipulating the reader so he can make a boatload of money. Guys like him are my hero because he demonstrates how people are typically too lazy to do research and just want an easy answer today. He got a great following because he started off with headlines like this:


Just to add: If you look up this author, he's a real estate agent in Jacksonville, FL .

Yes, but when articles like this are posted by our forum mods, I believe it because I think they do their research.

 

[RSchneider]

Then on SA you have an undergraduate philosophy student from McGill University.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139162-model-3-can-make-tesla-profitable

Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The question is, do I take stock tips from a real estate agent or an undergrad philosophy student when it comes to Tesla? This is what SA is all about. It's articles are to direct you to making the author money in the stock market which they have no experience at (at least nothing on their resumes). SA makes money from your clicks and membership.