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Paul Elio Speaks! 05-11-18

Discussion in 'General Elio Discussion' started by Elio Amazed, May 11, 2018.

  1. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    In 2 years if someone gets the STL file for the Elio body and uses it's basic dimensions, you could build one for $10K. All you'd need is a mid 90's Geo Metro as the donor car.
     
  2. Ty

    Ty Elio Addict

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    ... and not even a whole one at that!
     
  3. AriLea

    AriLea Elio Addict

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    Anything but the Elio production plan becomes a low volume production market where you couldn't serve the cost/benefit focused buyers. In such a case the sale price has to exceed the higher production costs with higher profit margins. And any plan change would involve jilting prior reservations of a $7k Elio structure.

    So I think you have to think about the Slingshot, TRex and SmartCar. A typical slingshot is around $25K+, even while being produced overseas. Trex at $45K to $90K(domestic), an early Smart import at $26 to $36k (now half that or less).

    So can a Elio in any other form of production be built/delivered for under $12K? Well, likely no. Modern imported Smarts at 6k units/year can't. (even with tooling/engineering already paid off)

    The best that the TRex could do at bench-built prices was around $45k. And the very low number of sports focused buyers are more or less happy with that. The sports focused buyers don't act on pragmatic cost/benefit ideals.

    So, compared to a domestic T-Rex I would say a bench-built Elio is more likely to price at $50K+, given the extra features/complexity, but would definitely need a turbo to garner enough buyers. The exact MPG would not be a big sales factor. Uniqueness definitely would. Beating 50 or 60mpg would be good enough if you want some green buyers too. So more cc is a very good idea. Only about $30m would need funding as guess, given they can build demo units right now at some unknown cost. They do not need to anticipate demand as much in this case, just build as orders mount.

    A production level equal to an imported Slingshot would likely hit the $30K+ mark, again need a turbo or more cc. Would that many more people buy it? Can you acquire an investment of $50m to $100m for that? This requires anticipating demand by 3 to 6 months.

    If somehow a production of 20k units/year can be 'anticipated' per year, that level could produce a $20K+ domestic product. But how many would buy one? Smart is the example for this one. They sold 10k/yr for about 4 or 5 years on the basis of Uniqueness and Green Ideals. In this case a Turbo would have to be an option since the buyers are split between green interests and sports. I have only a guess on the start up costs, maybe half of the original, or maybe $75m to $175m?

    The three options above are a little more interesting to investment since the profit margin is higher than the current Elio plan.

    In it's current form the Elio can't be a good EV, so drop that one. However, just a few people would likely buy a bad EV version.
    But a good EV Elio would allow pricing up to $10k additional, since that is the battery pricing plus mark-up. What makes this viable is the volume of interest would jump up. This would require an Elio redesign, maybe more like my Atlantric. All of Sports, Green and maybe even pragmatic buyers would be more interested.

    So we can look at the Solo on this EV version, it's at around $10k over the Elio as an EV, but the Solo is less of a vehicle in my opinion. At Elio level features we are looking at $25k or about $10k over the Solo. 6 months anticipated sales. -Just my guessimates.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
  4. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    I never realized that you did not live in North America. As for the North America people, the Slingshot is made in Huntsville, AL. I've taken a tour of the factory and anyone can too. I suggest you all do this when you travel because you'd be amazed when it comes what is made in America.
    I looked up the link to the factory tours:
    https://slingshot.polaris.com/en-us/self-help/article/KA-01000/

    Then the Vanderhall is made in Provo Utah. So there's two currently made three wheelers made in the USA and I know I can buy the Vanderhall for under $30K today.
     
  5. AriLea

    AriLea Elio Addict

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    Nope, I apologize, I live here in AZ. I must got the wrong information on the Slingshot. (or just geriatric memory) It maybe that a quantity of the parts supplied are imported or at least a non-USA make. that just lowers the estimated cost of the vehicle if imported from the right country.

    So the effect to my guestimate would be down, for maybe a couple thousand for that production plan.
     
  6. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    Most of the components are made in the US. Contrary to popular belief, the supplier market is in hypermode due to so many making pats now in the US. This is because automation has solved the "Made in China" problem. There's a reason why Polaris is in Huntsville, there are at least 2 dozen OEM suppliers within 100 miles of that town. This is why the new Toyota/Mazda plant is opening there.

    Another example is that VW located in Chattanooga because of the tax breaks and the massive supplier network that is local (all because of BMW when they opened up Spartansburg back in the 90's which is the largest BMW plant on the planet and they export 70% of what they make). The VW plant uses 85% North American content for the Passat. I know from my work there, only 3% is from China.

    Plus remember do not confuse North American content with being made in USA. North American Content is USMCA which is Canada, USA and Mexico. Technically Elio could make 90% North American content and that 90% could all be made in Mexico. People just tend to only cherry pick the word "American". Since NAFTA does not exist any more, we are all seeing an increase in the cost of parts because with USMCA, if I make pistons in the US and pay people $15/hr, then in Mexico, I need to pay them $15/hr, not $5/hr like in the NAFTA days. Companies are not moving plants here in record numbers because if you already have the plant there, no sense in shutting it down and building a new one here. So we just pay the Mexicans more.

    The problem with Elio Motors is that they took over the Shreveport plant back in 2013. Times have changed and thus the supplier base is not there any more but about 500 to 700 miles east of there. Then states like Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina and Georgia give great tax breaks for manufacturing jobs. As for Elio, not the case, they literally have to pay to be there (as we have seen by the over $8M in fines they have). So, I just wonder how Elio motors is going to handle this as they priced this thing out a long time ago. I know companies make trucks in Texas but they have a massive profit margin, not the $1K that Elio has confirmed.
     
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  7. AriLea

    AriLea Elio Addict

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    Any Idea how much investment did it require for the Vanderhall to get up to production? It doesn't have a full cabin option, so AC, heat and defroster are likely underserved. Plus the door engineering isn't up to elio spec. Lets say all that is added, so maybe a $35k price would result.

    I would suggest, if we could get that same investment amount(plus 10%), -we-, you as CEO and me in vehicle aspects, we could produce Atlantric's in both EV and ICE versions at the same production levels as Vanderhall. An EV Atlantric would likely have over 250HP on tap in a 1250lbs package(AWD), plus more than enough range. That will keep the sports crowd happy! Keh, I like dreaming! (keh=OK-hey)

    Of course I'm ignoring that a full cabin changes the vehicle from motorcycle/trike into a full car with airbags and other safety requirements and added gov certifications. Would that add another $5k to the sales price? Now we'r over the price of an entry level Tesla? Uniqueness, sport and range better beat the Tesla.

    (seriously, I believe nobody is likely to risk that kind of money, even at 100% ownership)
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
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  8. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    As for Vanderhall, you need to remember, it's all been funded internally within the family. So with that, nobody has any idea as to if they are making a fortune or losing their shirt. I do know that their car building experience and chassis design is part of their master plan to build EV's that will be used in their proposed planned grid community (along with the smart toilets and kitchens) that they were going to originally build in one of the somewhere east of the Mississippi (surrounding someones birthplace) but now, west of the Mississippi. I don't know if they are the best example of how to do things when it comes to a three wheeler startup when talking about Elio Motors.

    Polaris already had all of the engineering and resources, thus they didn't run into the FUV problems of marketing a product and then delaying production by shifting the blame on someone else. Honestly, they knew this a few years ago but this is a common issue with startups where marketing is 10 steps ahead of engineering. Plus Polaris makes many products and thus they can take a hit on the Slingshot if needed because snow machines will make up the difference. I suspect the 4 wheeler market is making up the difference for many of their produce lines because it's really taken off.

    For the Atlantic, you have a single product, so you need to make it count. Plus you have to figure out the projected sales because that's how you price everything out and how you are going to build it. Elio has planned on 250K per year and making $1K per unit. So that's where they are at. If you are to make 5000, you need to be making at least $5K per unit to make it even worth the hassle.

    Plus the Vanderhall has heat and some versions have AC. It was an easy add on as the Chevy powertrain out of the Cobalt came with AC, so they bolted on a compressor and redid the HVAC box. Again, it's a play toy like all three wheelers are, thus you can charge more.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  9. Jelio

    Jelio Elio Addict

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    LETS PLEASE LEAVE THE RELIGION BASHING OUT OF OUR COMMENTS!!!!!!
    I'M SICK OF PEOPLE THINKING ITS OK OR EVEN FUNNY TO BASH OTHERS MOST SACRED BELIEFS!
    THIS FORUM IS NOT THE PLACE FOR IT!
     
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  10. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    There. I took out any religious reference, specific locations, and historical names. Now you should be happy.

    BTW: It was not religious bashing. Quite the contrary but I understand some people are more sensitive than others in this day of age. I'm sorry that you took it that way.
     

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