What Is The Latest Start Production Date?

[eliomemaw]

That makes two of us! I agree!

I'm in...

 

[slinches]

I'm in...I would send my check right now .....they can't use it till 200 mil. is met and they start production.....

I sent an email to EM making the suggestion earlier today and already got a response that it was passed along to the right people. Here's hoping they'll consider it ... or, even better, that they don't need to.

 

[pistonboy]

You need to remember, I'm spelling out a scenario. I'm not giving compromises that must be done, just examples. I think that most can agree, the current business plan has actually not been working for a while. If it was, then the dozen or so timelines that Paul told the world would have had at least 80% of them met. As of now, it's around 0%.

I could see this scenario playing out:
1. Elio Motors declares bankruptcy
2. The plant assets are sold off or whatever clause Stu has (because you know he has one).
3. Intellectual property, tooling and cars are packaged up and sold off
4. Debts are paid (as good as they can)
5. All non refundable deposits are erased
6. All refundable deposits are paid back

Then Mr Blue who bought everything in #3 takes two weeks and uses a few engineers and a project manager to figure out where to go with what they bought. I could see this happening if I was Mr. Blue:
1. Forget the IAV engine and whatever transmissions were chosen.
2. Find a suitable off the shelf new up to date drivetrain that meets 50 state emissions (this is a good selling point because it's easy to do).
3. Forget the airbags because of the liability. Unless there's a federal spec for autocycles and airbags, then avoid that because of liability.
4. As for safety, make it according to any federal laws that apply (again liability).
5. Limited options to make initial assembly and line management lest costly.
6. Conform to the testing procedures that the motorcycle and other similar industries use (i.e. ATV's, trikes, etc).
7. Work out a deal with an existing motorcycle/motorsports manufacturer to distribute, sell and service the vehicle.
8. Build a new plant small that's not like that GM one which is old and bloated. If it wasn't, GM wouldn't have given it up. Locate it in SC, GA, TN or AL. They are really manufacturer friendly.

I know that the price will be higher, it won't get 84 mpg, not have airbags and 250K/year is not going to happen. What it will do is get them out into the market. Then when the cash flow starts working, you make the next version that will set an industry standard. That next version would be a hybrid.

Currently, others are already making electric trikes and soon, there will be a few more out there that others will want to buy. Waiting around for Elio to get an angel investor and the market becoming something that could easily turn into electric only is probably not the best thing to do. In 3-5 years a two passenger trike just might be able to make it 400 miles on a tank of electric. At that point, no need for ICE. Then there's the Chinese that are so much about electric that they will be funding lots of R&D on energy storage. They want to get away from ICE and coal because of the growing problem they have on their hands.

In the end, the Elio is a great idea, it's just that it needs some major tweaks. Do that, then it'll be on the road. It might take a bankruptcy to get to that point. Hopefully that doesn't have to happen.

You said "Build a new plant small that's not like that GM one which is old and bloated. If it wasn't, GM wouldn't have given it up."

It is my understanding the GM plant is one of the more modern plants and GM did not want to give it up. They were required to as part of their bail-out agreement.

Why give up the IAV engine when, as I believe, it's development is already paid for and tailored specifically for the Elio vehicle?

You'r ideas have a lot of change, but I am reminded of the saying "Don't confuse change with progress".

 

[Rob Croson]

This is conjecture on your part.

You are correct. The difference is that my conjecture has a thorough grounding in reality, whereas the one I quoted is cut from whole cloth. At least 6 of those 8 points are total crap, and provide glaring evidence that the poster doesn't know shit, and hasn't even bothered to do basic research on the subject.

 

[Grumpy Cat]

You said "Build a new plant small that's not like that GM one which is old and bloated. If it wasn't, GM wouldn't have given it up."

It is my understanding the GM plant is one of the more modern plants and GM did not want to give it up. They were required to as part of their bail-out agreement.

Why give up the IAV engine when, as I believe, it's development is already paid for and tailored specifically for the Elio vehicle?

You'r ideas have a lot of change, but I am reminded of the saying "Don't confuse change with progress".

And I've said this time and time again, it is better to have a big plant so it is easier to expand production than to spend even more money to expand the facility and/or build another plant.

 

[AriLea]

... The business plan requires 200,000 plus three wheeled two person autos sold every year. Based on the funding challenges, I'm not the only person that sees that as an implausible plan.....

This is a bit of self induced failure by expectation. The plan doesn't require 200k vehicles right out the gate. Only 65k.

I suppose for some investors they want that a guaranteed 200k will sell. For the worst of that lot, they'll never be convinced until a competitor is already selling 200k. But then they will say there is too much competition. Possibly you subscribe to that group.

There is plenty of researched theoretical evidence that 200k is conservative provided there is no direct competition and the Elio price stays below about $7900. And I must say just any tadpole trike isn't competition, since the lower limit of that starts at double the Elio price. The Micra isn't going to be $7400 if it ever hit the US, pretty much double that when you add in AC and other common options.

There is no product on the horizon of EV's either that will challenge the Elio for the foreseeable future. I think there will be one day, but converting the Elio to EV is not a dramatic engineering problem, so long as you are not giving it too much range. Building a car around an ice drive is actually more difficult. I've seen plenty of EV conversions to support that claim.

To give an EV-Elio the option of greater range would probably only require integrated fenders for the extra volume. I'd suggest extra range as an option, even as an after market product, since battery cost will remain the driving factor in purchase price.

 

[Grumpy Cat]

This is a bit of self induced failure by expectation. The plan doesn't require 200k vehicles right out the gate. Only 65k.

I suppose for some investors they want that a guaranteed 200k will sell. For the worst of that lot, they'll never be convinced until a competitor is already selling 200k. But then they will say there is too much competition. Possibly you subscribe to that group.

There is plenty of researched theoretical evidence that 200k is conservative provided there is no direct competition and the Elio price stays below about $7900. And I must say just any tadpole trike isn't competition, since the lower limit of that starts at double the Elio price. The Micra isn't going to be $7400 if it ever hit the US, pretty much double that when you add in AC and other common options.

There is no product on the horizon of EV's either that will challenge the Elio for the foreseeable future. I think there will be one day, but converting the Elio to EV is not a dramatic engineering problem, so long as you are not giving it too much range. Building a car around an ice drive is actually more difficult. I've seen plenty of EV conversions to support that claim.

To give an EV-Elio the option of greater range would probably only require integrated fenders for the extra volume. I'd suggest extra range as an option, even as an after market product, since battery cost will remain the driving factor in purchase price.

How many enclosed 3 wheelers are there in American anyway? I can't think of any. How many parents will get their college kids an Elio rather than a almost dead used car? How many commuters will get the Elio rather risk getting door dinged with their bigger cars, plus to save on fuel, plus being able to use the HOV lanes, etc, etc, etc? I see so many upsides to getting an Elio than spending the money on another bigger car when it is only me in the car.

 

[RSchneider]

"How many parents will get their college kids an Elio rather than a almost dead used car?"

The Elio is a projected $7450 and that's not counting destination fee. Let's say the destination fee is $500 (which is less than any other destination fee out there that I know of). So, that brings the price up to $7950. For that price I can buy a 2012 Ford Certified Pre owned Fiesta with 29,000 miles for $7995. Certified Pre Owned gets me 12 month/12K mile Premium Care Ford Warranty, Roadside Assistance, remaining factory warranty and a 7 year 100K powertrain warranty. I don't consider that an almost dead used car. It also has passed all federal safety standards. As for the Elio, no idea what the safety standard is, long term reliability or if there will be a place that can service it which won't be 100 miles away.

Plus, my kid can pack it full of stuff when he goes off to college as opposed to having to pay U-Ship. When kids go off to college, the car usually sits and not many miles are put on it anyway. Most live on campus or close to it.

A few other searches of cars in the Elio price range:
2015 Mitsubishi Mirage, 27K, $7995
2013 Kia Rio, 35K, $7995 (Kia Certified pre owned)
2013 VW Jetta, 63K, $7995
2012 Fiat 500, 6K, $7995
2011 Mazda 2, 31K, $7995

 

[Samalross]

"How many parents will get their college kids an Elio rather than a almost dead used car?"

The Elio is a projected $7450 and that's not counting destination fee. Let's say the destination fee is $500 (which is less than any other destination fee out there that I know of). So, that brings the price up to $7950. For that price I can buy a 2012 Ford Certified Pre owned Fiesta with 29,000 miles for $7995. Certified Pre Owned gets me 12 month/12K mile Premium Care Ford Warranty, Roadside Assistance, remaining factory warranty and a 7 year 100K powertrain warranty. I don't consider that an almost dead used car. It also has passed all federal safety standards. As for the Elio, no idea what the safety standard is, long term reliability or if there will be a place that can service it which won't be 100 miles away.

Plus, my kid can pack it full of stuff when he goes off to college as opposed to having to pay U-Ship. When kids go off to college, the car usually sits and not many miles are put on it anyway. Most live on campus or close to it.

A few other searches of cars in the Elio price range:
2015 Mitsubishi Mirage, 27K, $7995
2013 Kia Rio, 35K, $7995 (Kia Certified pre owned)
2013 VW Jetta, 63K, $7995
2012 Fiat 500, 6K, $7995
2011 Mazda 2, 31K, $7995

In Canada you can get a new Nissan Micra and Chev Spark for $7400 US. Not sure the price in the US.

 

[AriLea]

In Canada you can get a new Nissan Micra and Chev Spark for $7400 US. Not sure the price in the US.

Looks like by the time it's on the lot, over $12k and then add tax and license.
Example
So I guess the difference between CA and USA is about 1:to:1.6 for the same car.
Something sold in India or China seems likely to easily double.