What To Do With The Gas?

[Ty]

But ... but ... but ... where will I go to get my Slurpee fix? or buy the gallon of milk I forgot to get at the grocery? Or exchange the propane tank for my grill (unless propane/natural gas also take off as transportation fuel sources).

The thing is, EV isn't going to take off like you (or a lot of other people) think it will. Every time I read or hear something about the growth of the EV market, I always write or call in with a simple question that leaves them stumped. All of their comments and statements are based on the belief that everyone lives in a house with a garage. I live in an apartment complex that was built almost 50 years ago. A dozen buildings built in roughly a square, but on a hillside so there are very few level places. AND NO GARAGES! Just a parking lot, no assigned spaces, first come first parked.

How, by all that is holy, are the two hundred or so people living in my apt. complex going to charge their EVs? And this is only one complex out of many, many apartments in my city. And my city is only one of how many in my state that have a lot of apartment dwellers?

Nope, the ICE is still going to be around and popular for quite a while.

How many gas pumps are installed at your apartment? My wife's car (gas) has an effective range of about 300 miles and yet we don't have our own private gas pump. In 20 years, you should be able to get an EV that goes 200+ Miles between fill ups. You'll just have to get your fill up the same place everyone else does... your local filling (charging) station.

 

[WilliamH]

You all Make good arguments but, All the experts agree we are at peak oil capacity world wide. The decline in production is the only true debate here. We will run out of easy oil then comes the hard stuff e.g. oil sands, etc which the Canadians are currently doing. Other possibilities will be explored but in the end it Will run out! Alternatives will need to be adopted, period! When we will run out? But it will happen. Oil is a finite resource, the planet cannot replenish it as fast as we are using it therefore it will end. Alternatives?? Electricity? Well lets agree that many, many generating plants are fossil fuels. So those will go away, then coal or nuke plants, but those currently need fossil fuels for at least some of their systems. Ouch, gotta figure out something there, but the coal plants are being attacked by environmental groups as well as nuke plants! Am alternative to the alternative has to be found??? If there's no fossil fuels? WOW! Big problem!! Even if we can come up with a solution to battery life, etc. We still need something to replace fossil fuels? Solar? Possibly, but the technology needs to be drastically improved! Wind? The same! So what then? ??

Let's take the word expert.....
EX = former or has been.
Spurt = A high pressure drip.
Now let's combine the words.....
EX Spurt or expert.......
We get a has been who leaks under pressure.
Or someone who needs to scare you to insure their revenue stream.

 

[Ty]

My take... cars are becoming more and more efficient be they hybrids or just cars with smaller, more efficient engines. If the efficiencies of cars continues to rise, it should lessen the pressure on oil reserves.
1. Average efficiency of cars in 1980 was 18 mpg. In 2016, it was twice that.
2. Fuel prices, since 1980 have not risen. (Price adjusted for inflation).
3. Government mandates will require even higher efficiency by 2025.

If population doubled during the time when efficiency doubled, the gas usage would have remained constant, right? Now, if we could just control the population...

If a person was truly concerned about the environment and their own personal energy usage, wouldn't they live close enough to walk to work? Why would someone selfishly live too far to walk, drive an EV, and tell me I'm a bad guy? Glass houses...

 

[WilliamH]

My take... cars are becoming more and more efficient be they hybrids or just cars with smaller, more efficient engines. If the efficiencies of cars continues to rise, it should lessen the pressure on oil reserves.
1. Average efficiency of cars in 1980 was 18 mpg. In 2016, it was twice that.
2. Fuel prices, since 1980 have not risen. (Price adjusted for inflation).
3. Government mandates will require even higher efficiency by 2025.

If population doubled during the time when efficiency doubled, the gas usage would have remained constant, right? Now, if we could just control the population...

If a person was truly concerned about the environment and their own personal energy usage, wouldn't they live close enough to walk to work? Why would someone selfishly live too far to walk, drive an EV, and tell me I'm a bad guy? Glass houses...

Why?
Probably because there are some types of work that can't be done that close to where people live.
You can't weld a broken implement a block from your house if it's in a field 50 miles away.
You can't investigate a train wreck in Hoboken, NJ from Washington, DC.
(Personal note: I used to commute through Hoboken on my way to work in NY City.)
You cant run an assembly line in Shreveport, LA from Albuquerque, NM.
Some things you just have to be there for.
Some jobs aren't always in the same place every day.
People who live in crystalline edifices should not throw igneous objects.

 

[Elio Amazed]

Ty, the 2017 Chevy Bolt a 3500+lb. EV, has a range of 238miles.

Given 20 years or even less than that...
I'd say you'll be able to buy an affordable EV that has a range of 450 miles or more.

The theory about gas usage remaining constant doesn't work...
When you count the exponential growth of the number of new ICE vehicles...
In countries that are just beginning to catch up to us in affluence and convenience.

 

[AriLea]

Hmmm, if EV was the way to go, it would be because battery tech finally competes well enough with gas.(well enough of course is subjective and relates to main-stream public attitudes)
If that were true, and the entire infrastructure started converting over, it would become interesting for just a few people to convert their cars to EV power. But for the most part a full infra-structure conversion can't happen as fast as cars wear out. So you are going to get full use of any ICE for it's lifetime.
Slowly, very slowly ICE will start to become a novelty, but the infrastructure will be as slow to disappear as well. In this situation it's helpful that ICE has very good range. And it can be converted to CNG which will likely last even longer.

By then Elio Motors will certainly offer an Elio-E for less than half the price of 4 wheel sedan-EV's. Of course a lot here depends on competition in the EV-Autocycle area.
But still, for those who want to convert, the Elio would make an excellent conversion donor car.

 

[Sethodine]

When my wife and I are/were apartment hunting, making sure we can plug in our Leaf at night is always one of our primary concerns. But so far, potential landlords have been really flexible on the matter. Many buildings have exterior wall outlets, so as long as curbside parking is available then running an extension cord from the building to the car isn't difficult. Our previous landlord even built us a box to house the charger, to reduce the chance of theft. (They say you shouldn't use an extension cord to charge an EV, but that is just to keep people from picking the wrong gauge and burning their house down.) However, we're living at my father-in-law's house now, so we have full access to the garage power outlets.

The thing about EVs; I don't see a future where there are power outlet stations in the same way that we have gas stations. Unless there is some huge advancement in battery charging technology that allows a full charge in the same time as a gas fillup. More likely (and what we've been seeing) is that EV charging is more like WiFi: businesses offer it as an added incentive to pick them over a competitor. Thus, restaraunts and shopping centers are installing EV chargers. And just as offering free WiFi has become the norm (when was the last time you paid for public wifi at a coffee shop?), so too do I believe free EV chargers will continue to appear.

But even should gasoline fall out of favor and gas stations start to close, I don't think the neighborhood convenience store will disappear. I know in Japan, convenience stores are a huge deal and part of daily life, yet most do not sell gasoline at all. Even today, convenience stores only sell gas as an accessory to their main products: sweet drinks and salty snacks. The profit margin on gas is almost non-existant.

 

[Chris F]

Another aspect of all this that no-one has mentioned yet is the Federally mandated mpg requirements.
It's been tough enough to get the 1300lb. aerodynamic Elio anywhere near 84mpg.

The US auto industry and the imports know that it's next to impossible to meet those requirements.
That is, all the way through 2025 with competitively priced 3500+lb ICE powered cars.

And if they found that they could.... How's 0-60mph in 11.5 seconds sound to those who still want to drive a new ICE 4-wheeler in 2025?

BTW... I don't have a garage... I don't plan on building one... I'm buying an EV... and I don't see a problem with that.

.

I think the AVTM target is 75 MPG and my understanding is that they meet that requirement now.

 

[Sethodine]

I think the AVTM target is 75 MPG and my understanding is that they meet that requirement now.

And it all depends on who's testing cycle you are measuring on. The DOE's method (ATVM) is much less rigorous than the EPA's method. According to the paperwork submitted by EM, the projected EPA-rated 84mpg of the Elio would equal about 95mpg on the DOE scales (if I remember correctly; but it was definately a number in the 90's).

 

[Chris F]

My take... cars are becoming more and more efficient be they hybrids or just cars with smaller, more efficient engines. If the efficiencies of cars continues to rise, it should lessen the pressure on oil reserves.
1. Average efficiency of cars in 1980 was 18 mpg. In 2016, it was twice that.
2. Fuel prices, since 1980 have not risen. (Price adjusted for inflation).
3. Government mandates will require even higher efficiency by 2025.

If population doubled during the time when efficiency doubled, the gas usage would have remained constant, right? Now, if we could just control the population...

If a person was truly concerned about the environment and their own personal energy usage, wouldn't they live close enough to walk to work? Why would someone selfishly live too far to walk, drive an EV, and tell me I'm a bad guy? Glass houses...

I'm a fan of Clive Cussler's books. In a book published in 1981, he predicted that EV's would dominate the market a few years in the future (late 80's). I think that was based on peak oil projections, presumed only upward pressure on gas prices and possible government mandates. He was, fortunately, dead wrong. As reality set in, we saw peak oil projections to be just wrong, that crude oil prices can go down as well as up, that vehicle manufacturers were more than able to meet MPG targets with gasoline engines and that EV technology just has not made it practical to have an EV for the working guy to use just to get to work. As oil prices went up, the push to explore and drill more new areas expanded. New oil and gas formations were found, so that "peak oil" never happened. Really cheap natural gas meant that electricity producers converted from coal and oil to gas. That left more oil to go into gasoline and diesel for vehicles. Maybe, in another 10 years, EV technology will get to the point that a Chevy Bolt-type EV is cheaper than a similar gas model. Maybe the Elio EV version will make that break-through sooner. I foresee a time when you can go the Sears or Pep-Boys and buy an inexpensive charger for your EV you can just plug into your wall socket, getting discounted power by charging overnight or on weekends. In 1982, I bought a VHS VCR for the bargain price of $1,250. It weighed in at about 40 pounds and sounded pretty loud. I just got my son a blu-ray player for his TV for $65; I probably could have gotten one cheaper. As electronics get smaller and cheaper, battery technology improves, and consumer acceptance is better, that will bring down the EV cost.