ACEpickles
New Member
The price keeps falling and falling. Very demoralizing. Just gonna hang on and hope for production.
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Why Is The Stock Price Dropping?
- Thread starter ACEpickles
- Start date
Maurtis
Elio Addict
As long as it stays above $12, you are still in good shape. Unless you bought during a high point. I hope it does hit $12 - $15 so I will not feel like I missed out too much and can jump in now. I am thinking about buying at $20 anyway.
Great to see another poster from New Bern, I grew up in New Bern until moving to Raleigh when I was 12. Love visiting my brother who moved back there.
Hotscoots
Elio Addict
In the interest of brevity I will state that conventional methods of placing a "value" on a stock is typically a multiple of earnings . As Elio has no earnings , this model would set the stock price at -0- . An alternate model is to raise money in the equity markets by selling the "potential" for future earnings .
No one knows the future potential and whether Elio is fairly priced at $12 , $120 or $.12 is an unknown . A good example of this paradigm is the dotcom phenomenon. Hundreds of stocks in the late 1990s were priced at obscene multiples of nothing . Many were not even functioning as their Dotcom name would imply . They were simply ideas . After the crash , hundreds of tons of office furniture were in the streets of Manhattan . Billions of "phantom equity" lost in a day . Elio could return many times your investment or nothing . Anyone that tells you otherwise is ignorant of the game .
No one knows the future potential and whether Elio is fairly priced at $12 , $120 or $.12 is an unknown . A good example of this paradigm is the dotcom phenomenon. Hundreds of stocks in the late 1990s were priced at obscene multiples of nothing . Many were not even functioning as their Dotcom name would imply . They were simply ideas . After the crash , hundreds of tons of office furniture were in the streets of Manhattan . Billions of "phantom equity" lost in a day . Elio could return many times your investment or nothing . Anyone that tells you otherwise is ignorant of the game .
bunchathrees
Elio Addict
Hotscoots - you beat me to it. I completely agree. This enterprise either has a value of Zero or some other incalculable number.
slinches
Elio Addict
Well, this isn't going to help LINK
That analysis is very pessimistic, in my opinion. It assumes a major negative impact from the NHTSA rule that is unwarranted (the Elio would likely set the standard for safety based on the standard feature set, which would be a relative advantage against competitors) and it completely ignores the possibility of the ATVM loan. On top of that, the potential earnings calculations make no sense. They show revenues in 2017 of $47.5 Billion on 75,000 units delivered, which would mean a unit cost of $633,000.
If they sell 75k Elios in 2017, I'd expect numbers like $600 Million in revenue with ~$75 Million of that being operating profit which would put them in the black at roughly the 300k unit mark somewhere in the middle of 2019 (not 2022) if you use the projected sales volumes from this analysis.
That analysis is very pessimistic, in my opinion. It assumes a major negative impact from the NHTSA rule that is unwarranted (the Elio would likely set the standard for safety based on the standard feature set, which would be a relative advantage against competitors) and it completely ignores the possibility of the ATVM loan. On top of that, the potential earnings calculations make no sense. They show revenues in 2017 of $47.5 Billion on 75,000 units delivered, which would mean a unit cost of $633,000.
If they sell 75k Elios in 2017, I'd expect numbers like $600 Million in revenue with ~$75 Million of that being operating profit which would put them in the black at roughly the 300k unit mark somewhere in the middle of 2019 (not 2022) if you use the projected sales volumes from this analysis.
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TMOSteel
Elio Addict
And who exactly is this "Seeking Alpha PRO"? I'm not a huge investor, but I've never heard of them. It looks like you have to pay to subscribe so I'm not so sure their information isn't biased, but again I don't know them from a hole in the wall. Anybody can say anything to drive the stock price down so someone can swoop in a buy it up for pennies on the dollar. People have scammed other by driving up the stock price by posting in forums, email chains etc. and have gotten caught. I'm sure there are organizations that do the same.
Just my two cents (or $12).
Just my two cents (or $12).
Rob Croson
Elio Addict
It is a fairly long article. A quick glance shows it to be very detailed, and very thorough. This isn't some sensationalist hack looking for some hits to drive up ad revenue. The author did their research. I know nothing about them, but their arguments seem well-reasoned, and well supported with facts.
slinches
Elio Addict
At the surface, it does seem like someone put in some effort. Although, that is undermined fairly heavily by the blatantly wrong numbers and omission of relevant facts.
Maybe people should read this article about SeekingAlpha
It give a good picture about them
Reading that article, it reminded me of another site some like to believe.
It give a good picture about them
Reading that article, it reminded me of another site some like to believe.