Little News From Tesla

[Coss]

Another tid bit from Tesla

Production delays have plagued the Model 3 since July 2017, forcing production target setbacks.


Tesla is burning through $8,000 a minute as Model 3 production crawls along, report says
Automaker is spending $1 billion per quarter, needs another $2 billion by mid-2018
November 27, 2017

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk fully predicted the "production hell" the company would endure this year, signaling months earlier it would be a make-or-break moment for the electric automaker. But a full five months after production began, the Model 3 is a little difficult to spot even in EV-heavy areas of California.

The details surrounding Model 3 production delays remain a little murky: Battery assembly and steel welding were named as the main culprits by Tesla. The bottlenecks that have been holding up production for the last several months, at last report, appear to persist, and the company has taken the step of pushing back its production targets by a full three months to the end of March 2018. Tesla hoped to have ramped up production of its first truly volume car to 5,000 units per week by December 2017, but by the end of November has achieved a total production output numbering in the high hundreds, according to several reports.

These delays do not mean a lot of free time for Tesla workers; Bloomberg estimates that, despite the low Model 3 output, the company has been burning $480,000 an hour over the past 12 months, which works out to $8,000 a minute.




Green Cars
Opinion: Tesla dangles 2 shiny electric objects to distract from production reality
Elsewhere on this site is a story on the just-revealed Tesla Roadster. Tesla says 60 mph arrives in 1.9 seconds, 100 in 4.2 seconds, and the quarter-mile in 8.9 seconds. Top speed? 250 mph. Range ...




Tesla embarked on a cash-raising blitz earlier in the spring, accumulating some $3.2 billion ahead of the start of Model 3 production. But the company expected to be generating $175 million per week by December 2017 by producing (and selling) 5,000 Model 3s each week, taking the $35,000 base price at face value. Production delays now portend a significant cash crunch for the automaker -- Tesla has reportedly spent about half of the $3.2 billion in cash that it had saved up specifically for Model 3 production needs and is estimated to have spent $1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2017 alone.

Bloomberg now estimates that, at the current rate of cash burn, Tesla will exhaust its current cash reserves during the first week of August 2018.

A partial solution may arrive via sales of future vehicles that have not yet entered production, which is something Tesla is being criticized for once again, not without merit. Tesla unveiled the second-generation Roadster prototype to crowds gathered to watch the debut of the Semi truck, announcing that it will take deposits of $250,000 now for a "Founders Series" Roadster slated to enter production in 2020. This amount alone, with production for the Founders Series capped at 1,000 units, could generate $250 million, though the company is burning through $1 billion per quarter, as Bloomberg points out.

How much does Tesla need to stay afloat through the middle of 2018? Bloomberg estimates the automaker will require at least $2 billion in fresh capital by that point in time, based on a $1-billion-per-quarter cash burn estimate.

Bloomberg points out that Tesla could shore up the extra cash via a bond sale, even though buyers of debt are not making out very well at the moment after purchasing $1.8 billion earlier in the spring of 2017. Investors remain underwater even after the bonds recovered from a low of 93.88 cents on the dollar earlier in November.

Another option, short of a miraculous release of all production bottlenecks in the month of December, would be to sell more equity -- not the best course since it would dilute existing shareholders.

It remains to be seen if Tesla will be able to achieve the promised 5,000-cars-per-week target by late March 2018. Even though it is not running out of cash at the moment, it may run low on investor patience and brand enthusiasm unless things start heading in the right direction in the next three months.

Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/green-c...company-8000-minute-report-says#ixzz56U2f2LSz

 

[Coss]

Trouble For $36,000 Tesla Model 3: Big Delay Revealed
Feb. 7.18 | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Anton Wahlman

Long/short equity
Marketplace
Auto Insight For Wall St.
(2,969 followers)
Summary


Right after the Tesla 4Q 2017 conference call, we discover a major development Tesla “forgot” to tell us about in its shareholder letter or the call.

This major development is that Tesla has reportedly delayed the $36,000 version of the Model 3 by what seems like nine months.

Instead of very soon, the $36,000 deliveries will now take place in late 2018 if you were a Day 1 deposit holder (March 31, 2016), or otherwise in 2019.

That most likely means all but very few $36,000 Model 3 buyers won’t get the $7,500 Federal tax credit. But new competitors will.

How many Model 3 deposit holders will now ask for their money back? It could be a reversal of the 455,000 deposit hoopla of 2016-17.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Auto Insight For Wall St..

In what must have been the most surreal afternoon in Tesla (TSLA) history, the main surprise during the 4Q 2017 financial results conference call wasn't even that the head of sales (and service), John McNeill, left the company. And you know what they say about what to do when the head of sales leaves the company…

No, what happened wasn't even covered on the conference call at all. Instead, most of us found out an hour after Tesla's financial results call, by reading this article, from InsideEVs:

Tesla Pushes Back Standard Model 3 Deliveries To Late 2018, Early 2019.

Yes, you saw that right: The $36,000 ($35,000 plus $1,000 mandatory delivery and doc fee) version of the Tesla Model 3 has been delayed by what seems like nine months, according to the source. And you know what they say when Tesla says there's a nine-month delay? Think 18 months.

Consider this for a moment: How did Tesla not see fit to announce and explain this major development in its quarterly press release the same afternoon and on the conference call moments thereafter? Everything else that was written in the quarterly shareholder letter, and discussed on the conference call, pales in comparison to this blockbuster of a news announcement.

In case you still haven't absorbed the big news here - and I have sympathy, because it took me a few moments as well, when I saw it, as the conference call had just ended and I figured it must be an April Fool's joke - let me spell out what we found out right after the earnings call:

1. While Tesla had begun delivering the $50,000 (and up) version of the Model 3, which includes the $5,000 premium package, it had not yet started delivering the "standard" battery base version, which was going to be $36,000 (and up).
   
   
2. Those $36,000 deliveries were set to start as early as next month, March 2018. In any case, if not in March, very soon thereafter.
   
   
3. Now, as of tonight, it appears that Tesla has pushed these deliveries to late 2018 (if you placed your deposit on March 31, 2016), or to 2019 (if you placed your deposit after March 31, 2016). This according to the Insideevs and many other online posts, as this news is spreading fast this evening. Here's another prime example: Model 3 delivery estimator. And here is another one, out of more than I can now count: Gary on Twitter.
   

This is an earthquake for many - perhaps most? - Model 3 deposit holders, for several reasons:

1. Bye-bye $7,500 federal tax credit. If you don't take delivery of your car by the end of 2018, you are unlikely to be eligible for the having your taxpayer-neighbor pay for $7,500 worth of your car. Your neighbor might love not having to finance your lifestyle, but for you that's a huge loss as a percentage of your car's price.
   
   
2. Suddenly, you will have a lot more choices as to what other electric car to buy. In November 2018, the Kia Niro EV and Hyundai Kona EV should be arriving in U.S. showrooms, and they might be priced close to that $36,000 base price number.
   
   
3. Looking into 2019, numerous other options from automakers such as Volvo, Buick (GM) and MINI also will have practical long-range EVs probably available in that $36,000 to $43,000 price range. Now that you have choices, would you even buy the Tesla Model 3 if it were available?
   
   
4. Adding insult to injury, it's not only that you all of a sudden have new choices. Those cars also come attached with that aforementioned $7,500 taxpayer gift. That makes your decision even easier: Call Tesla and ask for that deposit refund.
   

By now, you may have woken up and realized where all of this is going. If not, I'm going to spell it out for you: Tesla's much-vaunted 455,000 refundable deposits (as of August 2, 2017) may see an emphasis on "refundable."


If this nine-or-so month delay in the $36,000 base version of the Model 3 "sticks" - in other words, if the decision wasn't a computer glitch or otherwise is reversed (not impossible, I guess) - this could trigger a massive "run on the bank" in which a large portion of the 455,000 deposit holders ask for their money back.

And it's not even about the money per se. Even if 400,000 of the deposit holders withdraw, the $400 million is not material to Tesla's overall financial situation. After all, the company just lost $675 million in a single quarter, December 2017.

For Tesla, it's not about the deposit money, directly. It's about the invincible Tesla story, and about Tesla's ability to raise new shareholder capital - or debt, frankly any kind of financing it can procure - to keep itself afloat, to fight another day. Close your eyes and remember those few weeks after the March 31, 2016, Model 3 reveal. It was all about those deposits and how they enabled Tesla to raise more money very shortly thereafter.

If this deposit flow now were to reverse following the massive nine-month delay in the affordable ("mass market") version of the Model 3, then this suddenly starts to look like one big house of cards that starts to implode. That's the risk here.

Was this the only Tesla issue of importance today? Was there nothing of interest on the conference call, or in the numbers? Of course there was. But I submit that this stealth development, apparently right after the conference call, is vastly more consequential to the Tesla's future in the stock market.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA and long GM. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.

 

[Rickb]

Tesla and Elio Motors spark negative reviews by negative reviewers. There is no actual production delay since Tesla is delivering cars, working out supplier glitches typical to scaling production numbers. I got an email from Elon today that stated my reservation delivery date has been moved out a bit, but look at what Road & Track reviewers say about their Model 3 day long Test drive experience.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/a15070866/tesla-model-3-test-drive-review/

I can wait patiently knowing production milestones are being met, delivery rate is slower than expected, and should I lose patience, get my refund at any time.

I have only been waiting about a year and a half for the Model 3; nearly a decade on Elio and Arcimoto.

 

[Coss]

Here's a bit of news from Q4 of their financial:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...a13b2cf64d8040addd9965aa2339ee7&uprof=45&dr=1

 

[johnsnownw]

Anton Walman is a shill, and a spreader of FUD. This is why people should avoid SA. He's been anti-Tesla since the beginning. As I mentioned before, these "analysts" who are bearish or short on Tesla have cost people a lot of money:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/22/tesla-tsla-2018-rally-costing-shorts-1-billion/

It's been doom and gloom for years, yet Tesla soldiers on, delivers vehicles, continues to lead in owner satisfaction.

 

[Samalross]

Anton Walman is a shill, and a spreader of FUD. This is why people should avoid SA. He's been anti-Tesla since the beginning. As I mentioned before, these "analysts" who are bearish or short on Tesla have cost people a lot of money:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/22/tesla-tsla-2018-rally-costing-shorts-1-billion/

It's been doom and gloom for years, yet Tesla soldiers on, delivers vehicles, continues to lead in owner satisfaction.

I have been researching stocks for forty years. Never found one writer that I trusted as being totally unbiased. That being said, I would not trust myself either, if I was a writer.

 

[Rickb]

What’s the point of posting Tesla FUD when you don’t appreciate Elio FUD? FUD is FUD. Tesla is made in the USA, providing thousands of manufacturing jobs. Go Tesla!

‘Good news’ on the Model 3 production status and the expansion of customer deliveries! Team Tesla 2/7/2018:

 

[RSchneider]

More FUD to chew on:

One thing to remember is this. Tesla has been building complete cars since 2012 (I won't count the original roadster). They had around 5 years of building cars and SUV's. Now they are going into a cheaper and higher volume unit. With that, they are struggling. It shows that when you try to make something cheaper on a larger scale, it's not as easy as it looks, even though they have vehicle manufacturing experience.

With that being said, if Elio does get to production in 2019, I'd suspect they will be having a hard time just like Tesla and most likely, a harder time. This is because Elio has no manufacturing experience of building cars, plus they have to build a brand new engine too. This will be the first shot at it and they will have 65K customers chomping at the bit to get theirs. I suspect we will have people that will be around #1K in their SIL and be waiting 6+ months before their number comes up.

Just like Elon, Paul will be in manufacturing hell for a while and probably much deeper for a longer period of time.

 

[3wheelin]

Tesla and Elio Motors spark negative reviews by negative reviewers. There is no actual production delay since Tesla is delivering cars, working out supplier glitches typical to scaling production numbers. I got an email from Elon today that stated my reservation delivery date has been moved out a bit, but look at what Road & Track reviewers say about their Model 3 day long Test drive experience.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/a15070866/tesla-model-3-test-drive-review/

I can wait patiently knowing production milestones are being met, delivery rate is slower than expected, and should I lose patience, get my refund at any time.

I have only been waiting about a year and a half for the Model 3; nearly a decade on Elio and Arcimoto.

I agree RickB. And it shouldn't be a surprise to everyone what Tesla Motors are going through from the beginning- announcing an "affordable" Tesla 3 way cheaper than their current 100K version will and had created so much hype, thousands of reservations poured in and now they can't keep up with production- but at least they're delivering. Relate this to ELIO motors announcing an unheard of target price of 7K for an ELIO- same thing, it created hype and reservations poured in but the similarities ends there as EM have to find money to back up what they've started. Scaling production needs tons of money and without it, that's what we can expect from Arcimoto and EMV- a few units here and there while we all wait impatiently. As for ELIO, FUHGETABOUTIT!

 

[Rob Croson]

So... some things about this article/propaganda:

This major development is that Tesla has reportedly delayed the $36,000 version of the Model 3 by what seems like nine months.

Note that he's specifically referring only to the base version of the model 3. Not model 3 in general. No one should be surprised by this, as Elon Musk said from the beginning that they would be delivering the more expensive versions first to recoup their investment. Given that Tesla needs the cash, it's easy to see how they may extend this a bit more. Reservation holders should have known from the start that if they wanted a base model, they would be waiting a long time.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Let me clarify what he's really trying to say here: "I have a shitload of money riding on Tesla stock dropping, so I'm going to distort the facts, stretch the truth, and be as misleading as possible in order to get the stock price to drop so I can earn some bucks."

And third.... why no mention of the Bolt? He mentions the several cars that *may* be available toward the end of the year, but not the one that you can get RIGHT NOW, and is also widely acclaimed as being an all around great car? Bah!