Asked For My Deposit Back, Thanks To American Oil-denial

[Rob Croson]

BEVs are going to be dead cheap by 2025, and I'm not sure the market for 3-wheeled ICE vehicles is large enough to support the required volume to allow Elio to profit at their price-point.

Define "dead cheap". Like, you can get a regular four-wheeled BEV with a 650 mile range for $7,500? Or do you mean "dead cheap" as in a crappy, stripped-down, 50 mile range sub-compact for $15,000?

 

[johnsnownw]

Define "dead cheap". Like, you can get a regular four-wheeled BEV with a 650 mile range for $7,500? Or do you mean "dead cheap" as in a crappy, stripped-down, 50 mile range sub-compact for $15,000?

I mean, costs are trending to below $100/kWh for the packs by 2020. So by 2020, the base Model 3 pack will cost around $5k, and net you over 220 miles of range...and solid state batteries which are supposedly due out around that time should be able to lower the costs even further. Battery costs have continued to fall faster than projected, and China is only going to drive the costs down further. So, by 2025 it would seem that pack costs should be around $75/kWh.

The Chevy Bolt, for instance, should have an MSRP below ~$20k by 2025...and that's using current Prismatic cells. Remember, the average cost of a new vehicle in the US is over $30k.

So, by "dead cheap" I meant in comparison to today's BEVs...not that you'll be getting an EV with 650 miles of range for the cost of a Mitsu Mirage.

 

[Rob Croson]

The Chevy Bolt, for instance, should have an MSRP below ~$20k by 2025...and that's using current Prismatic cells.

So you're saying that the price of the Chevy Bolt will drop by OVER $17,500 within the next 7 years? (Keeping in mind that the sticker price for a base model Bolt is ~$37,495.) I hate to say it, but I can't help but think you're just delusional. Even if the battery pack was free, there's no way that the Bolt would sell for <$20k.

I mean, I agree that battery prices will continue to fall. And that we'll get better batteries for that lower price. But even so, the Bolt battery doesn't even cost $18k to begin with.

And let's not forget that states are beginning to pile on charges for EV owners. Michigan recently passed some legislation levying hundreds of dollars of extra charges onto EV registrations to compensate for the loss of gasoline taxes. So EVs are getting more expensive to own, in some ways.

I don't think that anything short of some techno-magic is going to cause EVs to get so cheap and ubiquitous that a very inexpensive ICE vehicle like the Elio would not be well received. Don't forget all the people for whom EVs simply won't work. These tend to be the less financially well off to begin with. This is kind of the target market for the Elio. Their biggest competition will be cheap used cars, not $30k+ EVs.

 

[johnsnownw]

So you're saying that the price of the Chevy Bolt will drop by OVER $17,500 within the next 7 years? (Keeping in mind that the sticker price for a base model Bolt is ~$37,495.) I hate to say it, but I can't help but think you're just delusional. Even if the battery pack was free, there's no way that the Bolt would sell for <$20k.

I mean, I agree that battery prices will continue to fall. And that we'll get better batteries for that lower price. But even so, the Bolt battery doesn't even cost $18k to begin with.

And let's not forget that states are beginning to pile on charges for EV owners. Michigan recently passed some legislation levying hundreds of dollars of extra charges onto EV registrations to compensate for the loss of gasoline taxes. So EVs are getting more expensive to own, in some ways.

I don't think that anything short of some techno-magic is going to cause EVs to get so cheap and ubiquitous that a very inexpensive ICE vehicle like the Elio would not be well received. Don't forget all the people for whom EVs simply won't work. These tend to be the less financially well off to begin with. This is kind of the target market for the Elio. Their biggest competition will be cheap used cars, not $30k+ EVs.

You're welcome to call me delusional, but you're just ignoring how much battery costs have come down, in just the last 5 years, and how much they will continue to do so. Part of the reason the Bolt is selling for $37,500 is due it's relatively low volume, and battery cell cost of around $145/kWh (pack level of around $220kWh). GM is coming out with 20 BEVs between now and 2025, and Mary Barra has stated that a 30% reduction in cost is achievable by 2023, while also being profitable. That would bring the Bolt to $26,250, by 2023.

Again, Solid State batteries that are projected to be out around that timeframe have the potential to drastically reduce the cost of the batteries...this assumes they'll be scalable at that point, however.

I'm also not saying that everyone can make BEVs work, but as I've pointed out before, 86M US households have access to home charging, today...and Porsche's 800V charging has reduced charging a BEV to 15 min (for 200 miles).

The point is, BEVs are going to be A LOT more affordable by 2025, and just because GM sees a reduction in cost of 30% doesn't mean other manufacturers won't manage to do better.

 

[Samalross]

You're welcome to call me delusional, but you're just ignoring how much battery costs have come down, in just the last 5 years, and how much they will continue to do so. Part of the reason the Bolt is selling for $37,500 is due it's relatively low volume, and battery cell cost of around $145/kWh. GM is coming out with 20 BEVs between now and 2025, and Mary Barra has stated that a 30% reduction in cost is achievable by 2023, while also being profitable. That would bring the Bolt to $26,250, by 2023.

Again, Solid State batteries that are projected to be out around that timeframe have the potential to drastically reduce the cost of the batteries...this assumes they'll be scalable at that point, however.

I'm also not saying that everyone can make BEVs work, but as I've pointed out before, 86M households have access to home charging, today...and Porsche's 800V charging has reduced charging a BEV to 15 min (for 200 miles).

The point is, BEVs are going to be A LOT more affordable by 2025, and just because GM sees a reduction in cost of 30% doesn't mean other manufacturers won't manage to do better.

Do you think that they will put charging wires in roads in the near future? If they could, the weight and power consumption could be reduced dramatically.

 

[johnsnownw]

Do you think that they will put charging wires in roads in the near future? If they could, the weight and power consumption could be reduced dramatically.

No, not in the near future. Potentially some day, but the cost of doing so would be incredibly high.

I think SS batteries would likely make adding on-road charging largely unnecessary, as charging to 200 miles in around 5 min should be doable...without requiring a massive amount of energy to reach those speeds.

 

[Rob Croson]

That would bring the Bolt to $26,250, by 2023.

Which is still $6,250.00 higher than what you claimed.

 

[johnsnownw]

Which is still $6,250.00 higher than what you claimed.

Well, I claimed it would be cheaper by 2025. However, I wasn't talking specifically about the Bolt...because it won't exists in its current form in 2025. I was discussing vehicles with similar specs as the current Bolt, it was simply an example. I then used Barras own claims to show you that even GM believes large cost reductions are expected in that timeframe. My personal opinion is that they're being conservative with their numbers. ICE manufactures aren't exactly incentivized to quickly bring BEV costs down.

Anyway, I guess we can revisit this in 7 years.

 

[Rob Croson]

Well, I claimed it would be cheaper by 2025. However, I wasn't talking specifically about the Bolt...

I can only go by what you say...

The Chevy Bolt, for instance, should have an MSRP below ~$20k by 2025...

 

[RUCRAYZE]

when I was shopping (eventually bought the base model,ICE- left over new 2017 for 16.5k) but for 21k could have the EV model
and that's in the tech center of the planet- Seattle. This is just a quick search-
I think the Soul is perfect for my needs, which includes a reduced fair on the Washington State ferries.

As you can see with some @ 20k milage still qualifies for dealer coverage

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