Asked For My Deposit Back, Thanks To American Oil-denial

[johnsnownw]

I can only go by what you say...

Again, you asked about vehicles pricing with specific attributes...I used one that you are familiar with. I thought it was obvious that the Bolt in its current form wouldn't be around in 2025...

 

[Ty]

I mean, costs are trending to below $100/kWh for the packs by 2020. So by 2020, the base Model 3 pack will cost around $5k, and net you over 220 miles of range...and solid state batteries which are supposedly due out around that time should be able to lower the costs even further. Battery costs have continued to fall faster than projected, and China is only going to drive the costs down further. So, by 2025 it would seem that pack costs should be around $75/kWh.

The Chevy Bolt, for instance, should have an MSRP below ~$20k by 2025...and that's using current Prismatic cells. Remember, the average cost of a new vehicle in the US is over $30k.

So, by "dead cheap" I meant in comparison to today's BEVs...not that you'll be getting an EV with 650 miles of range for the cost of a Mitsu Mirage.

IF solid state batteries ever get developed (I hope they do)... And China entering the BEV market will likely drive battery prices up rather than down. Scarcity of resources could bite the industry.

 

[RSchneider]

And China entering the BEV market will likely drive battery prices up rather than down.

Go to China and you'll see they are way more into BEV's than any other country. They throttled up their production 5-7 years ago. The US is pretty much way behind the curve when it comes to BEV's if you compare most developed countries. Honestly, China is dumping a tremendous amount of R&D into batteries and EV technology. From what I see, the price will go down, not up.

 

[johnsnownw]

IF solid state batteries ever get developed (I hope they do)... And China entering the BEV market will likely drive battery prices up rather than down. Scarcity of resources could bite the industry.

We're a ways off of resource scarcity, but SS batteries would actually aid in that regard...as you'd need fewer batteries to go the same distance.

 

[JCar]

You're welcome to call me delusional, but you're just ignoring how much battery costs have come down, in just the last 5 years, and how much they will continue to do so. Part of the reason the Bolt is selling for $37,500 is due it's relatively low volume, and battery cell cost of around $145/kWh (pack level of around $220kWh). GM is coming out with 20 BEVs between now and 2025, and Mary Barra has stated that a 30% reduction in cost is achievable by 2023, while also being profitable. That would bring the Bolt to $26,250, by 2023.

Again, Solid State batteries that are projected to be out around that timeframe have the potential to drastically reduce the cost of the batteries...this assumes they'll be scalable at that point, however.

I'm also not saying that everyone can make BEVs work, but as I've pointed out before, 86M US households have access to home charging, today...and Porsche's 800V charging has reduced charging a BEV to 15 min (for 200 miles).

The point is, BEVs are going to be A LOT more affordable by 2025, and just because GM sees a reduction in cost of 30% doesn't mean other manufacturers won't manage to do better.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but many people in this forum must have seen "Who Killed the Electric Car?" (2006). I think those forces are still very much in play, especially with the current anti-science leadership. That would bode well for the Elio concept, I suppose.

Another issue is where the electricity will come from if a lot more people do significant charging. Low rates overnight could vanish. There's also a disturbing reliance on industrial wind power, which is very environmentally destructive (click link) when you get past its green image. I don't think electrifying vehicles is any sort of eco-panacea. So far, it's a lot like biodiesel, which only works on the cheap from cooking oil, etc. because demand is relatively limited.

 

[RSchneider]

The real problem is that electric usage is going down even though the population is going up. So, the power companies would welcome more people using electric.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/2/27/17052488/electricity-demand-utilities

This shows that wind is 5.6%. Actually with the more coal we digging out of the ground, they have one customer, the power companies. So, I would suspect that the percentage of power from coal will be going above 34%:
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=electricity_in_the_united_states

 

[RSchneider]

Also, over the last 20 years in my house, I have looked at the power consumption. Since my house is all electric, it was something at got my interest due to no home heating oil or natural gas. In those 20 years, my consumption has gone down 25% until recently. This is because things wear out and when you buy new, it's more efficient. Over the last 20 years I've replaced the heat pump, water heater, dish washer, stove and refrigerator. One other thing I replaced were all of the light bulbs. Our power company had a deal where if you bought LED lights, they would credit you on your power bill. So, I bought up 40 bulbs and replaced them when the old ones went out. The LED bulbs ended up costing me like $0.60/bulb. over two years all of the bulbs have been changed. I also had to put on new siding (and fixed some holes and insulation issues) along with all new windows (if you get a certain rating for them, you get a tax break for that year).

The interesting part was that I put in a panel to charge the i3. So, I was watching what it was using. My 18 year old fridge was causing some issues and I was getting ready to get a new one. I finally did and in the end, my power consumption is 1% less when you add the i3 charging and new fridge. So the fridge uses less and the i3 uses electric but in the end, there's a net loss of power consumption. I'm running at -26% from 20 years ago.

I have a feeling this is the problem that the power company sees. Too many old houses being updated and thus less electric being used. We had a problem with the water authority when we had a winter drought. They were all over everyone case about conserving water. Later that summer, the water authority was in a financial problem because people conserved too well even though we got lots of rain and no more drought.

 

[Hog]

In the end , conservation of anything drives the price up, not down. Look at gas taxes, vehicle registrations based on weight, and the examples above. Less use translates into less revenue, so the revenue must be increased by new taxes, fees, etc. I am paying a "law enforcement fee" on my registrations to fund the State Police, because revenue generated by tickets has been going down (due to the uncollectability of many of them) and an increase in speed limits from the old nationwide 55 mph rules. Gas taxes go up due to better mpg cars, reggies go up due to lighter electric cars, nothing is certain except death and taxes.

 

[RSchneider]

That's a perfect example of the cigarette tax. They keep raising it but less people smoke. So what amount of tax is the right amount of tax?

Then there where I live that has the highest gas and diesel tax in the US. $0.57 for gas and $0.74 for diesel. For any state, PA needs the Elio right now. WA is next at $0.49 for gas but only $0.49 for diesel. This is why I was shocked when I went to Hawaii and the gas was cheaper there than in my area. On the other hand, I went to Iceland and it was $7.50 a gallon for gas (I have no idea what the tax is on that) and found out they are #1 for the most expensive gas on the planet.

 

[johnsnownw]

Another issue is where the electricity will come from if a lot more people do significant charging. Low rates overnight could vanish. There's also a disturbing reliance on industrial wind power, which is very environmentally destructive (click link) when you get past its green image. I don't think electrifying vehicles is any sort of eco-panacea. So far, it's a lot like biodiesel, which only works on the cheap from cooking oil, etc. because demand is relatively limited.

There are quite a few other alternatives besides wind power, though I disagree that it's environmentally destructive, at least anymore so than other forms of carbon based energy generation. Solar, energy storage, and a smarter grid can alleviate/mitigate much of the concern. Solar, for instance, is only going to get cheaper and more efficient.

An MIT study found that the current grid could support 70% of the light-duty vehicle market switching to BEVs overnight, if they were spread out in such a way that no one region had a high concentration.

Any technology that provides greater efficiency than the current avg is okay in my book, unless it's FCEVs...I am vehemently opposed to said nonsense.