As we can all see the app is still subject to change as bugs are found and/or the information from EM changes.
For anyone who is really good with spreadsheets we could use some help correcting a fault with the current graph. The numbers along the top and bottom of the current graph are essentially in two week blocks as they increase by 10 work days which is two work weeks, M-F. The issue is that from what we understand Elio Motors intends to ramp up from 0-500 cars in 90 calendar days, 13 weeks, and not 90 work days, 18 weeks, as the graph currently shows.
So what we need is a new graph which ramps up production in a similar bell curve like trend to reach 500 units per shift after 13 weeks of production which is 65 work days. For the addition of the second shift we essentially need the same thing but instead starting at 500 units per shift and ramp up to a total of 1,000 units over 13 weeks/65 work days.
Something had actually been bothering me about the graph for a while now but I just recently decided to study it closer and realized what was bothering me. I was planning on working on this when time allows however I know we have some real math and spreadsheet whizzes out there so If someone else wants to tackle a revised graph this is the current graph information and a summary of the information we have from EM on this issue:
For anyone who is really good with spreadsheets we could use some help correcting a fault with the current graph. The numbers along the top and bottom of the current graph are essentially in two week blocks as they increase by 10 work days which is two work weeks, M-F. The issue is that from what we understand Elio Motors intends to ramp up from 0-500 cars in 90 calendar days, 13 weeks, and not 90 work days, 18 weeks, as the graph currently shows.
So what we need is a new graph which ramps up production in a similar bell curve like trend to reach 500 units per shift after 13 weeks of production which is 65 work days. For the addition of the second shift we essentially need the same thing but instead starting at 500 units per shift and ramp up to a total of 1,000 units over 13 weeks/65 work days.
Something had actually been bothering me about the graph for a while now but I just recently decided to study it closer and realized what was bothering me. I was planning on working on this when time allows however I know we have some real math and spreadsheet whizzes out there so If someone else wants to tackle a revised graph this is the current graph information and a summary of the information we have from EM on this issue:
Silas Sunday produced this great production estimate graph and posted it today to EMOA on Facebook. This pretty much matches what we have been told by Elio Motors in their blog and also what Paul Elio described in the Town Hall meeting while extrapolating a proper ramping up of production instead of just producing hundreds of Elios per shift on day one.
The blue line is line/shift 1, orange is line/shifts 1 & 2, green is both lines/shifts 1 & 2 @ 100%For those of you who may not have seen this information and would like a little more explanation on where the graph numbers came from:
In this blog post, dated April 11, EM stated that those who made an all-in reservation on that day would have to wait about 5-7 weeks after production begins to receive their new vehicle.
We happen to have a member, Zarquon, who made his All In $1K reservation on April 11 and his number is 3686 so this gives us some good insight into how slowly EM expects production to ramp up.
Also in the recent town hall meeting Paul Elio told us that in order to build 250,000 vehicles a year there will be two shifts working five days a week producing 500 vehicles per shift. So this is 1,000 vehicles per day over 250 work days per year which is what you would expect when you deduct holidays from the work calendar. These numbers also equal the 250,000 per year production number which we have been told about repeatedly.
Paul Elio also told us that the plan is to reach full shift speed, 500 vehicles per day, in 90 days then split the shift in two with half the workers moving to the second shift. He said it should take about another 90 days to reach the full speed of 1,000 vehicles a day across two shifts.
We also happen to have a member, Ty, who is an Industrial Engineer who worked at the GM Shreveport plant, and he tells us that GM ran their stations timed so that each station took no longer than 54 seconds. If you run the numbers you will find that if Elio Motors also used that same station timing they could produced 500 vehicles in only 7.5 hours. This tells us that 500 vehicles per shift is not an unrealistic production number at all especially considering that each and every vehicle will be identical other than paint color and choice of transmission.
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