2017 Production A Long Shot...

[3wheelin]

I've been by the Elio factory several times since they rented it. It is obvious someone is working there... Comau, most likely. The "tooling up" of the factory has been going on. It isn't like in December, they will be starting from scratch. Another thing, (fur ruffled here) I bet the 100 Elios are, aside from maybe painting the body panels, assembled on the actual assembly line. Think about it. It lets Elio test fittings, stations, AND let's them validate the assembly process. I would bet you'd have that handful of people following the Elio from station to station... maybe send one vehicle down the line with everyone going along and making sure the stations are set up for the next 99. Then, you could turn the line on and try assembling single cars at half speed or so to see if the stations are actually set right. If you took six people, say, and had them man six consecutive stations, you could have them play leapfrog all down the line as they'd each have seen the operations done once already. Each person would work every 6th station... Bob would work station 1 and then could saunter over to station 7 where he would do that job and then he'd go to 13, 19, 25, etc. He'd have 12 minutes if the line was moving at half speed to go from station to station. That is easy enough to imagine, isn't it? Seriously, the stations were all pretty obvious and took me maybe twice watching each to be able to do it myself. Think about it. Even if station X was complicated and needed a fixture they didn't have set up yet, like the windshield application station, they could pull the cord (stop the line) and all 6 bubbas could manually do that one station, go back to their stations, and re-start the line. I'd love to do that. But, give them all golf carts. That line is pretty long.

Wow, I would love to see a video of each process from station to station up to the alignment station, water leak detection area, etc.

 

[pistonboy]

Wow, I would love to see a video of each process from station to station up to the alignment station, water leak detection area, etc.

I would not be surprised if in the future, EM made videos of vehicles being assembled. But I believe it will be in the future. In the early stages they will have their hands full doing other things.
The videos of German auto assembly plants are impressive. The buildings are impressive and everyone is wearing uniforms.

 

[johnsnownw]

in short, anyone other than Paul who hasn't talked with Paul and who professes to know how he looks at things, is guessing

Sort of thought that's what I was saying. I certainly cannot read people's minds, anyway.

 

[bunchathrees]

Sort of thought that's what I was saying. I certainly cannot read people's minds, anyway.

Nice deflection. Rule # 1: Superpowers should not be flaunted.

 

[John Painter]

Very well said John. And that "significant increase in the line for production tooling" and all related stuff to create our ELIO is my concern. And I know EM is fully aware that their projected base price of $6800 is a dream. For them to recoup and make money, those expenses have to be added to the final base price....unless all of us are so naïve of the significance of the delays....inflation. And Paul Elio is no Elon Musk who can operate his pet projects at a loss. Ok enough of negativity and I'll check back when EM makes their big announcement that the e-series has been completed!

As it stands EM is saying their base price would be $7,600, with a production run of 125,000 and their target of $6,800 achievable at a production run of 250,000. A jaw dropping value no matter what.

Literally: "Additionally, the estimated $7,600 retail price is based on a 125,000 annual production volume and a BOM cost target of $5,654 that management expects to achieve at start of production. At 250,000 annual sales, we believe we can achieve the target $6,800 retail price due to lowered BOM costs (a target BOM cost of $5,132) resulting from economies of scale. Our management believes that based on the public response received to date, selling 250,000 vehicles per year at the $6,800 retail price is achievable."

 

[Ekh]

I think Elio can build 100 fleet units at the Shreveport plant without full tooling up the whole plant. Just one assembly line with some workers could build 100 units in 30 days. Order 100 engines, frames, body panels, 300 wheels and tires, etc, etc. How's that for optimism and a realistic possibility.

The engines doubtless would come from Linamar. I really wish we knew the details of that relationship. But it seems to be key to actual production of the car in Shreveport. And it may be key to producing the 100 pre production cars as well. All told Elio Motors needs 125 engines as of now, and that is a lot of engines to build one at a time.

 

[Ekh]

3rd world countries? Maybe later down the line, but not on this first run.
I've talked to them about sales to Saudi and Australia; that was maybe later, but no plans in the foreseeable future; first goal is Elio takes off, and makes it consistently here first.
I agree with KD on the comparisontween Paul and Elon; Elio is not even playing in the same ballpark.

The Elio itself is not suited to places where you pack a zillion people onto a motor scooter. But the engine may do very well in a very wide number of applications, particularly in the third world. So don't look for overseas sales of the Elio certainly not in the early years, but do look for widespread use of the engine via Linamar.

 

[larryboy]

The engines doubtless would come from Linamar. I really wish we knew the details of that relationship. But it seems to be key to actual production of the car in Shreveport. And it may be key to producing the 100 pre production cars as well. All told Elio Motors needs 125 engines as of now, and that is a lot of engines to build one at a time.

If Linamar is going to peddle the engine all over the world and modify whatever needs to be modified and have examples to show clients etc etc they will need quite a few more engines than 125 and that is before they make their first sale. It would not surprise me if the engine was in large scale production in a couple of months. Large scale is defined on the Kaiser Production Scale as somewhat less than mass production but a hell of a lot more than a few samples.

 

[TCBronson]

Got to remember Elio has quietly stepped away from the 5 star rating. Maybe not so much of the Elio design but as more the rules have changed in the last year or two.

The overall footprint of the Elio is bigger than you realize. The "box" it sits in is still real close to my wife's Altima.

More famous than Elon Musk? That will take some kind of doing! Paul is not dreaming of making space travel affordable to the masses as far as I know. Elon has many different things going on, and that is indicative of what having lots and lots of dollars available to you at a young age and being insanely driven. In an interview I saw (60 Minutes?) he mentioned how he doesn't understand why people want weekends off! Don't misunderstand me, he is well deserved of all his accomplishments.

All that being said, Go Team Elio!

Speaking of the 5 star crash rating, since motorcycles and as far we know autocycles currently don't have crash ratings it was my thought that EM is designing the Elio to achieve a 5 star crash rating and that they (EM) would be doing the crash themselves. If the Elio can pass the 5 star crash test then that gives them huge bragging rights that will help sell more Elios. I don't see the government giving Elio the 5 star rating directly, but independent testing that meet or exceeds the government ratings is just as good in my opinion. I can't wait to hear the results of the e series tests especially the crash test.

 

[TCBronson]

As it stands EM is saying their base price would be $7,600, with a production run of 125,000 and their target of $6,800 achievable at a production run of 250,000. A jaw dropping value no matter what.

Literally: "Additionally, the estimated $7,600 retail price is based on a 125,000 annual production volume and a BOM cost target of $5,654 that management expects to achieve at start of production. At 250,000 annual sales, we believe we can achieve the target $6,800 retail price due to lowered BOM costs (a target BOM cost of $5,132) resulting from economies of scale. Our management believes that based on the public response received to date, selling 250,000 vehicles per year at the $6,800 retail price is achievable."

If EM is trying to achieve their goal of a base price of $6800 why then did they include cruise control if they couldn't hit the $6800? Cruise control would be a popular option and an additional profit source!